An algorithm has predicted that the UK’s Eurovision representative Michael Rice will finish in 17th place in the song contest this Saturday (May 18).

The research, which was conducted by Dance Direct, also found that the Netherlands is most likely to win this year’s contest. Duncan Laurence’s song “Arcade” comes out on top as the most “perfect” Eurovision song.



To create the algorithm, Dance Direct looked at Eurovision data since 2012 and established what aspects of a performance makes somebody more likely to come out on top.

Men are more likely than women to win the Eurovision Song Contest

They found that men are more likely than women to win the contest. The highest scoring of all time at the Eurovision Song Contest is held by Portugal’s Salvador Sobral, who earned 758 points in the 2017 competition.

The research also revealed that solo artists tend to fare better than groups—however, if a country is sending a group to represent them at the contest, the more people they have, the more likely they are to fare well. Groups of six tended to do better than groups with smaller numbers.

Britain's Eurovision Song Contest entrant Michael Rice sings "Bigger Than Us" on the BBC on February 8 2019
Michael Rice

Strangely, the data also revealed that the song’s language does not have to even be a real language in order for it to be a winner, with some songs that incorporate imagined languages faring well over the years.

The highest scoring of all time at the Eurovision Song Contest is held by Portugal’s Salvador Sobral, who earned 758 points in the 2017 competition.

Meanwhile, what the act wears can have a bearing on their ability to win the Eurovision Song Contest. The data revealed that women wearing overstated white gowns tend to fare well, while men in classic black suits seem to perform better than others.

Ireland and Australia award the UK most points, but the UK does not reciprocate

They also found that the countries who tend to award the UK the most points are Ireland, Australia and Malta—however, the UK does not reciprocate, and instead gives most of its points to Sweden and Bulgaria.

Through its algorithm, the organisation predicted that Italy will come in second place, followed by Sweden and Hungary in fourth place.

Meanwhile, the algorithm puts Ireland’s entry, Sarah McTernan, at 28th. Lithuania fares worst in the algorithm.

The data is released as performers take to the stage in Tel Aviv this evening (May 14) for the first Eurovision semi-final. Those who get through to the final will perform again on Saturday (May 18).

This year’s Eurovision Song Contest is generating significantly more controversy than previous years, with people across Europe planning to boycott the contest as a part of the Boycott, Divestment, Sanctions (BDS) campaign against Israel. Calls for a boycott have been criticised by others who say that Eurovision is apolitical.




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