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Top Australian pollster says same-sex marriage will win ‘unless people are straight out lying’

Mayer Nissim October 4, 2017
Equal marriage activists in Australia (SAEED KHAN/AFP/Getty Images)

Equal marriage activists in Australia (SAEED KHAN/AFP/Getty Images)

The closing date for the postal vote for same-sex marriage in Australia is November 7, but an expert seems certain that the Yes vote will win.

Earlier this month, a Sky News survey of 5,000 people suggested that the result was now a foregone conclusion.

According to the poll, 64 per cent of respondents said they had already voted ‘yes’ to the proposal and sent their forms back.

Protests in Australia
Protests in Australia (SAEED KHAN/AFP/Getty Images)

If those polled were representative of the Australian public, it would suggest a landslide win for the Yes campaign.

Now, pollster John Stirton has crunched the numbers of various polls published between August 1 and October 2 and come to a similar conclusion, the Sydney Morning Herald reports.

Related: What the hell is going on with same-sex marriage in Australia?

“It’s very hard to see how the ‘no’ case could win from here unless an awful lot of people are straight-out lying to pollsters,” he said.

Stirton should know what he’s talking about, having worked for Fairfax/Nielsen for 17 years.

While it’s not possible to simply combine all polls, as questions change, Stirton said there was a clear trend in favour of a Yes vote.

Excluding Don’t Knows, it appears as though there’s a 65 per cent support for Yes.

As predicted in advance by those wanting parliament to pass a same-sex marriage law without a public vote, the issue has proved divisive in Australian society.

Some No campaigners have claimed that same-sex marriage will result in a ‘celebration of gay sex’ and “radical gay sex education”.

Tony Abbott
Ex Prime Minister Tony Abbott (Stefan Postles/Getty Images)

Ex-Prime Minister Tony Abbott and others failed in their attempt to ban rapper Macklemore from playing his same-sex anthem ‘Same Love’ at a rugby match – though some radio stations censored the song from their broadcasts.

A woman who covered her house in rainbow flags and messages in support of same-sex marriage was left fearing for her life when a homophobe pelted her home with rocks.

More: Australia, poll, same sex marriage, survey, yes vote

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