Top Australian pollster says same-sex marriage will win ‘unless people are straight out lying’
Equal marriage activists in Australia (SAEED KHAN/AFP/Getty Images)
The closing date for the postal vote for same-sex marriage in Australia is November 7, but an expert seems certain that the Yes vote will win.
Earlier this month, a Sky News survey of 5,000 people suggested that the result was now a foregone conclusion.
According to the poll, 64 per cent of respondents said they had already voted ‘yes’ to the proposal and sent their forms back.
Protests in Australia (SAEED KHAN/AFP/Getty Images)
If those polled were representative of the Australian public, it would suggest a landslide win for the Yes campaign.
Now, pollster John Stirton has crunched the numbers of various polls published between August 1 and October 2 and come to a similar conclusion, the Sydney Morning Herald reports.
Related: What the hell is going on with same-sex marriage in Australia?
“It’s very hard to see how the ‘no’ case could win from here unless an awful lot of people are straight-out lying to pollsters,” he said.
Stirton should know what he’s talking about, having worked for Fairfax/Nielsen for 17 years.
While it’s not possible to simply combine all polls, as questions change, Stirton said there was a clear trend in favour of a Yes vote.
Excluding Don’t Knows, it appears as though there’s a 65 per cent support for Yes.
As predicted in advance by those wanting parliament to pass a same-sex marriage law without a public vote, the issue has proved divisive in Australian society.
Some No campaigners have claimed that same-sex marriage will result in a ‘celebration of gay sex’ and “radical gay sex education”.
Ex Prime Minister Tony Abbott (Stefan Postles/Getty Images)
Ex-Prime Minister Tony Abbott and others failed in their attempt to ban rapper Macklemore from playing his same-sex anthem ‘Same Love’ at a rugby match – though some radio stations censored the song from their broadcasts.
A woman who covered her house in rainbow flags and messages in support of same-sex marriage was left fearing for her life when a homophobe pelted her home with rocks.
