A consensus: among consultants Wait until 2012 To Repeal Prop 8

he advice is piling up on one side for folks who want to see same sex marriage legalized in California: Wait until 2012 to ask voters to overturn Proposition 8.

We’ve told you about the three LGBT coalitions of color who suggested waiting, and the nation’s oldest LGBT Democratic club saying the same. Now some of California’s top political consultants are joining the chorus.

Now, now. We know that some gay marriage fans blame consultants for the ruinous anti-Prop 8 campaign. But Equality California marriage director Marc Solomon — who helped lead the successful drive for marriage in Massachusetts — asked seven to share their thoughts on the 2010 v. 2012 question. Plus, they asked what the LGBT community and their allies should do to prepare to go back to the ballot. Three were openly LGBT (including two who are married) and one is a Republican.

The consensus: Wait until 2012.

Sue Burnside, co-chair of the National Gay & Lesbian Victory Fund Campaign Board, is “convinced that we should refrain from rushing in 2010, and instead to build on grassroots passion and strategically prepare for a ‘Yes on Marriage Equality’ referendum in 2012.” Ditto for Mark Armour and Rick Claussen suggests “a multi-year campaign that culminates in an election when the time is right.”

“If you do UNSUCCESSFULLY undertake this issue at the ballot in 2010, this will further erode public support on the issue and make it harder for future efforts to succeed,” Claussen said.

Even though Democratic consultant Richie Ross — who has won a bazillion races in California going back a few decades — doesn’t offer a definitive suggestion, he presents a raw numbers breakdown that suggests that by 2012 there will be more young voters on the rolls (likely to vote for gay marriage) and more older voters (likely to oppose) dying off.

Dave Fleischer, who has worked on many gay-related ballot measures over the years, worries about money. Each side on the Prop 8 battle raised at least $40 million. “The most conventional path to victory employed by a wide variety of campaign strategists — bury your opposition by dramatically outspending them, effectively drowning out their message — isn’t an option when the opposition is as well-funded as ours is in California.” He worries that the 66 weeks until Nov 2010 “is a very brief time to raise $40-50 million.”

Plus, he worries if “our strategy, in a lower turnout year, (can) insure that those who voted withus in 2008 return to the polls in greater numbers than those who voted against us? We can certainly try. But we have to acknowledge that this would be very difficult. Key blocs of our supporters, such as younger voters, often turn out to vote in reduced numbers in off-years.”

Former Los Angeles Times pollster Jill Darling said “Did the 2008 campaign move voters? Are the post-elections efforts having any effect? Nothing measurable, as of May.”

See The consensus: Wait until 2012.

San Francisco Chronicle

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Marriage fight looms IN mAINE

Opponents and supporters of gay marriage are laying the groundwork for a tough summer political campaign that experts say will put Maine in the national spotlight.

Organizers of an effort to overturn a new law legalizing same-sex marriage in Maine have hired the California public relations firm that ran the successful Proposition 8 campaign that overturned same-sex marriage there.

And supporters of same-sex marriage, who oppose the people’s veto effort, have hired a seasoned Maine political strategist who ran the successful Maine Won’t Discriminate campaign in 2005. That campaign fought a people’s veto of Maine’s gay rights law.

Maine became the fifth state to legalize gay marriage in May, when the Legislature passed a bill and Gov. John Baldacci signed it into law. Opponents, led by the Catholic church and other clergy, immediately began the campaign for a people’s veto, which would ask voters to overturn the law.

Organizers of the people’s veto are attempting to collect 55,087 signatures of registered Maine voters to put the question on the ballot. The same-sex marriage law would take effect 90 days after the Legislature’s June 13 adjournment. But if the veto effort collects enough signatures before then, the law’s implementation would be stayed.

At least five political action committees have been formed to help raise funds to support the people’s veto effort. Two have been formed to oppose a people’s veto.

According to the latest filings with the state Ethics Commission, most haven’t raised money. But one, StandForMarriageMaine.com, has raised $60,000 from the National Organization for Marriage. The next filing deadline is July 15.

See Marriage fight looms

Morning Sentinel -

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Maine Gay-marriage foes hire California firm that ran Prop 8

Opponents and supporters of gay marriage are laying the groundwork for a tough summer political campaign that experts say will put Maine in the national spotlight.

Supporters of the law have hired a seasoned Maine political strategist who ran the successful Maine Won’t Discriminate campaign in 2005. That campaign fought a people’s veto of Maine’s gay-rights law.

Maine became the fifth state to legalize gay marriage in May. Opponents, led by the Catholic Church and other clergy, immediately began campaigning for a people’s veto, which would ask voters to overturn the law.

Organizers of the veto effort are attempting to collect 55,087 signatures of registered Maine voters to put the question on the ballot. The same-sex marriage law will take effect 90 days after the Legislature’s June 13 adjournment unless the veto effort collects enough signatures before then, which would put the law on hold.

At least five political action committees have been formed to help raise funds to support the people’s veto effort. Two have been formed to oppose the veto.

According to the latest filings with the state Ethics Commission, most haven’t raised money. But StandForMarriageMaine.com has raised $60,000 from the National Organization for Marriage. The next filing deadline is July 15.

See Gay-marriage foes hire California firm that ran Prop 8

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Gay marriage a minefield for candidates for California governor

From the start of his run for governor, San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom has tried to show there is more to his career than the gesture that won him worldwide fame: his 2004 decree legalizing same-sex marriage.

Yet there he was Tuesday on CNN’s “Larry King Live,” speaking out for gay rights after the state Supreme Court upheld Proposition 8, the same-sex marriage ban that Californians passed in November.

For Newsom and five major-party rivals, the resurgence of the same-sex marriage issue has added a new complication to the race for governor.

If gay rights groups get their way, the nominees to succeed Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger will share the November 2010 ballot with a measure to repeal Proposition 8, turning an emotionally charged cultural issue into a central focus of the campaign.

Across the nation, the subject has grown more challenging for candidates of all kinds as the mere concept has given way to the reality of tens of thousands of married gay couples. Massachusetts, Connecticut, Vermont, Maine and Iowa have legalized same-sex marriage.

Voters have also shifted their views. In April, a Washington Post-ABC News poll found that 49% of Americans said gay marriage should be legal, and 46% said it should be illegal. Three years earlier, 36% had said it should be legal, and 58% had said it should not.

“The trajectory of public opinion on this issue has been dramatic,” said Democratic pollster Mark Mellman.

In California, where Newsom’s rebel edict in 2004 touched off the court battles that spawned some 18,000 marriages that were declared valid Tuesday, candidates for governor face multiple dangers on the issue. Although support for gay marriage has risen over the last decade — the 52% yes vote on Proposition 8 was down from 61% on a similar measure in 2000 — the issue still sharply divides Californians.

“People care about this one — a lot — on both sides,” said Steve Smith, a Democratic strategist who worked on the campaign to defeat Proposition 8.

A Field Poll taken three months ago affirmed stark generational and ideological splits on same-sex marriage.

Younger voters were far more likely to approve of it than older voters. And Democrats overwhelmingly favored it, while Republicans were strongly opposed.

In that environment, candidates for governor are juggling wildly different needs for the primaries and the general election. See Gay marriage a minefield for candidates for California governor Los Angeles Times * Tags = gay men gay news lesbian news transgender bisexual

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Political Memo Same-Sex Marriage Holds Peril for GOP

WASHINGTON — It was only five years ago that opposition to same-sex marriage was so strong that Republicans explicitly turned to the issue as a way to energize conservative voters. Yet today, as the party contemplates the task of rebuilding itself, some Republicans say the marriage issue may be turning into more of a hindrance than a help.

The fact that a run of states have legalized same-sex marriage in recent months — either by court decision or by legislative action — with little backlash is only one indication of how public attitudes about this subject appear to be changing.

More significant is evidence in polls of a widening divide on the issue by age, suggesting to many Republicans that the potency of the marriage question is on the decline. It simply does not appear to have the resonance with younger voters that it does with older ones.

Consider this: In the latest New York Times/CBS News poll, released Monday, 31 percent of respondents over the age of 40 said they supported same-sex marriage. By contrast, 57 percent under age 40 said they supported it, a 26-point difference. Among the older respondents, 35 percent said they opposed any legal recognition of same-sex couples, be it marriage or civil unions. Among the younger crowd, just 19 percent held that view.

Steve Schmidt, who was the senior strategist to Senator John McCain of Arizona during his presidential campaign, said in a speech and an interview that Republicans were in danger of losing these younger voters unless the party came to appreciate how issues like same-sex marriage resonated, or did not resonate, with them.

“Republicans should re-examine the extent to which we are being defined by positions on issues that I don’t believe are among our core values, and that put us at odds with what I expect will become, over time, if not a consensus view, then the view of a substantial majority of voters,” Mr. Schmidt said in a speech. See Political Memo Same-Sex Marriage Holds Peril for GOP

New York Times

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Dallas pastor to join team lobbying Congress for gay rights

The Rev. Jo Hudson of Dallas’ Cathedral of Hope will be part of a high-profile team of pastors visiting Congress to lobby for gay rights. Details below:

This is a critical time for the LGBT movement. Today, the U.S. House is marking-up the federal hate crimes bill, an important step before the bill moves to a vote. Federal legislation is necessary to ensure all citizens are safe from hate violence. Only 11 states and the District of Columbia have hate crimes laws that cover both sexual orientation and gender identity. Twenty states have hate crimes laws that cover sexual orientation but not gender identity.

The Clergy Call for Justice and Equality is organized by the HRC Foundation’s Religion & Faith Program, lead by Harry Knox, who was recently appointed by President Barack Obama to the Council on Faith-Based and Neighborhood Partnerships. To check out this year’s program visit: www.HRC.org/ClergyCall.

Confirmed speakers: Read their bios: http://www.hrc.org/issues/religion/12294.htm

The Rt. Rev. V. Gene Robinson, NH
Bishop Yvette Flunder, San Francisco, CA
Rev. John H. Thomas , Cleveland, OH
Rev. Dr. Anthony Campolo, St. Davids, PA
Father Richard Estrada, Los Angeles, CA
Rev. Dr. Jo Hudson, Dallas, TX
Rabbi Steven Jacobs, Los Angeles, CA
Rev. Dr. Cynthia Love, Abilene, TX
Rev. Manish Mishra, St. Petersburg, FL
Rev. Drew Phoenix, Anchorage, AK
Bishop Tonyia Rawls, Charlotte, NC
Joe Solmonese, Washington, DC
Rev. Dr. Traci C. West, Madison, NJ

Updates in the movement of faith and LGBT equality:

The unanimous ruling of the seven-member Iowa Supreme Court, written by Mark Cady, a Republican appointee, explained that a state’s legalization of same-sex marriage has no effect on marriage as practiced by religions. “The only difference,” the judge wrote, is that “civil marriage will now take on a new meaning that reflects a more complete understanding of equal protection of the law.
The McCain-Palin 2008 campaign strategist, Steve Schmidt, urged his party last week to join him in endorsing same-sex marriage.
Jon Huntsman Jr., the governor of Utah, who in February endorsed civil unions for gay couples, a position seemingly indistinguishable from Obama’s. Huntsman is a Mormon presiding over what Gallup ranks as the reddest state in the country.
Rev. Rick Warren, the hugely popular megachurch leader who endorsed Proposition 8, California’s same-sex marriage ban, dropped in on Larry King to declare that he had “never” been and “never will be” an “anti-gay-marriage activist.” But, it apparently didn’t thrill his base and he cancelled on ABC’s George Stephanolopous, minutes before taking to the air on the nationally televised “This Week.” Warren’s sudden reverse remains controversial in the LGBT community: http://www.pamshouseblend.com/diary/10284/rick-warren-lies-about-his-homobigotry-on-larry-king-live
Faith leaders are building momentum and making clear that they support full equality for LGBT people under the law. America’s clergy are transforming our nation one congregation at a time and making it easier for Members of Congress to stand for equality. The theme for Clergy Call 2009, “Moving from Acceptance to Advocacy,” reflects the vision of a faith-based movement for LGBT equality built from the ground up: in local churches, synagogues, mosques.

See Dallas pastor to join team lobbying Congress for gay rights

Dallas Morning News

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Deb Price: More Republicans embrace gay equality

Rumblings of change are beginning to be heard from deep inside the Republican Party.

The gay Log Cabin Republicans’ recent national convention offered a tantalizing peek at a possible not-so-distant future when the Republican Party has finally — and firmly — turned the corner and embraced equality for gay Americans.

Marquee speakers were Steve Schmidt, former senior campaign strategist for 2008 Republican presidential nominee John McCain, and former New Jersey Gov. Christie Todd Whitman, a founder of the moderate Republican Leadership Council.

Representing the youth vote that will determine the GOP’s fate was Meghan McCain, 24-year-old daughter of Sen. McCain and a contributor at TheDailyBeast.com.

Each supports marriage for same-sex couples.

That puts them firmly in the minority of today’s Republicans, but definitely not of future Republicans if the party is to grow, appeal to young voters, and be competitive beyond the south.

“We were crushed by the Obama campaign with voters under 30,” Schmidt pointed out.

What distinguishes the youth vote, he continued, is “a greater acceptance of people who find happiness in relationships with members of the same sex.” One day, a majority of Americans will follow, and, he added, “sooner or later the Republican Party will catch up.”

Whitman, tackling the problem of broadening the party without scaring away social conservatives, said, “It’s not about saying to the Christian conservatives, ‘There is no place for you.’ It’s about saying, ‘Would you please stop saying there’s no place for us?’”

Afterward, Whitman told me, “It’s not going to threaten my marriage to have a gay couple marry.” She wants the issue out of the party platform.

Meghan McCain was blunter: “Republicans’ using Twitter and Facebook isn’t going to miraculously make people think we’re cool again. Breaking free from obsolete positions and providing real solutions that don’t divide our nation further will.”

It’d be easy to dismiss the trio of speakers as preaching to choir, but encouraging rumblings are coming from elsewhere as well:

Gay Republicans point with pride to the fact that eight Republicans in the Vermont Legislature helped override the governor’s veto of gay marriage.

Meanwhile, gay Iowans are set to begin marrying on Monday, thanks to a ruling written by a Republican appointee. A University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll conducted just before the April 3 unanimous Iowa Supreme Court ruling for gay marriage found that 58 percent of Iowans aged 18 to 29 favor gay marriage, 17 percent prefer civil unions, and only 16 percent oppose both.

That means fewer than one out of five favors the official Republican position.

Contrast that with Iowans 65 or older: 18 percent favor gay marriage, 31 percent civil unions and 42 percent neither.

If you were running a company that hopes to still be around in 20 years, which customers would you appeal to?

That question is being asked in elite Republican circles. In a survey of its Republican political insiders, National Journal magazine found in its most recent issue that only 50 percent think their party should oppose gay marriage, while 8 percent think the party should embrace it and 37 percent say it should steer clear of the issue.

Speaking freely behind the cloak of anonymity, one Republican insider said, “Perception of complete hostility to all gay rights is killing the GOP among voters under 29. Evolve or perish, Republicans.”

A growing number of Republican thinkers are concluding that their party’s future hinges on finding a way to comfortably embrace gay rights.

Reach Deb Price at dprice@detnews.com or (202) 662-8736

See More Republicans embrace gay equality

The Detroit News

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Short Videos on Marriage Equality Could Win Up to $2,500 in L.A. Gay & Lesbian Center’s Project Pushback

It’s time to grab your camera and help change the conversation about marriage for same-sex couples. The L.A. Gay & Lesbian Center has launched Project Pushback to tap into the grassroots energy of marriage equality supporters and to inspire development of video messages that will effectively promote support for the freedom to marry.

Since the National Organization for Marriage has just launched a $1.5 million ad campaign repeating many of the lies relied so heavily upon by the Yes on 8 campaign, the need for effective messages to promote the support for marriage equality, and the truth, has never been greater.

Submissions will be accepted at lagaycenter.org/projectpushback, and the public will vote for its favorites. A $1,000 “people’s choice award” will be given to the creator of the video that receives the most votes. From among the 10 videos that receive the most votes, a $2,500 “grand prize” will be awarded to the creator of the video voted the best by a panel of judges, who include: Academy Award-winning Producer Bruce Cohen, Emmy Award-winning television producer and director Paris Barclay, MTV producer Sherri Brown Francois, political and communications strategist Chad Griffin, Google vice president Megan Smith and Current TV producer Tracey Chang.

Anyone who submits a video, or votes for one, is eligible to win a new Sony HD video camera, valued at $1,000.

Project Pushback isn’t about a specific election but about building support for the freedom to marry long before campaign season. The best messages will educate and persuade voters as well as motivate people who are already supportive to be more active in promoting marriage equality.

Entries don’t need to be complicated–some of the most effective ads by opponents of marriage equality were fairly simple, such as the Yes on 8 campaign’s “I can marry a princess” ad. Judges will, however, be looking for innovative and original entries.

“During the fight against Prop 8, opponents of marriage equality used scare tactics and lies in their television ads to frighten voters,” says Center CEO Lorri L. Jean. “We need to find effective ways to blunt the impact of those ads by educating people about the truth of our lives. Entries to Project Pushback should help open the minds of those who don’t already support our freedom to marry.”

The Center’s Vote for Equality project, which has harnessed the power of hundreds of volunteers to educate voters about marriage equality since 2004, is continuing to organize neighborhood canvasses in areas where the vote on Prop 8 was evenly split. The issues/reasons most commonly cited by those who voted “yes” on Prop 8 are:
– Religious opposition
– Marriage is defined as the union of a man and woman
– The impact on children
“We’re learning a lot about voters from our one-on-one conversations, and just as important, we’re starting to change minds,” says VFE Project Manager Regina Clemente. “We also realize that face-to-face conversations are not the only way to start to open the minds of voters. We look forward to seeing the best videos from Project Pushback and then testing those messages in person with actual voters.”

Vote for Equality’s next voter canvasses are Saturday, April 11, and Saturday, May 9 – hundreds of volunteers can be accommodated and training is provided. More information about volunteering can be found at www.lagaycenter.org/VoteForEquality.

The panel of judges includes:
– Paris Barclay is an award-winning television director and producer, with two Emmy Awards and two NAACP Image Awards, among others. Barclay’s current projects include HBO’s In Treatment and MTV’s Pedro.
– Sherri Brown Francois is the producer and director of True Life, MTV News and various documentaries.
– Tracey Chang is a producer for the Vanguard Journalism department at Current TV, a cable television network founded by former Vice President Al Gore. Since 2005, she has covered a range of stories in countries including Pakistan, China, Colombia and Egypt.
– Janet Choi is a producer at MTV in New York. A former international correspondent for Channel One News, Janet was also a reporter for KTLA’s “Your LA with Janet Choi.” She has produced four documentaries based on travels to North Korea, Cuba, Colombia and China.
– Bruce Cohen is the Academy Award-winning producer of American Beauty, and his most recent film, Milk, was nominated for a best picture Oscar. Cohen also produced Big Fish and To Wong Foo, Thanks for Everything! Julie Newmar.
– Rev. Art Cribbs Jr. is pastor of the San Marino Congregational Church and formerly was employed by KPIX-TV in San Francisco. Rev. Cribbs serves as a board member for several organizations, including the United Black Christians in Crisis Committee.
– Donna Deitch is an award-winning film director best known for her 1986 film Desert Hearts. Deitch also directed The Women of Brewster Place, HBO’s Prison Stories: Women on the Inside and Showtime’s Devil’s Arithmetic, for which she won an Emmy.
– Chad Griffin is a seasoned political and communications strategist. Griffin raised money for the No on 8 campaign from celebrities such as Brad Pitt, Steve Bing and Ron Burkle. He also helped create the anti-Prop 8 ads featuring Sen. Dianne Feinstein.
– Hon. John A. Perez is a California Assembly member who has worked in the labor movement and has served as a board member for organizations such as AIDS Project Los Angeles, the Latino Coalition Against AIDS and the California Center for Regional Leadership.
– Cathy Renna is nationally recognized as a media relations expert. She was a major force behind the Gay & Lesbian Alliance Against Defamation (GLAAD). She is a founder and managing partner at Renna Communications, which specializes in LGBT issues.
– Hilary Rosen is the managing partner of the DC office of the Brunswick Group, a London-based PR and communications strategy firm. She is also an on-air contributor for CNN and Washington editor-at-large for The Huffington Post.
– Megan Smith is the Google vice president of new business development and general manager of Google.org and previous CEO of Planet Out.
– Pam Spaulding is the editor and publisher of Pam’s House Blend, honored as “Best LGBT Blog” in the 2005 and 2006 Weblog Awards.
– Judy Starkman is the co-owner of convergencefilms.com, an L.A.-based production company specializing in commercials and web-based films. In the past she has worked as a commercial director, a television news producer and a photojournalist.
– Andy Towle is the former editor-in-chief of Genre and the blogger behind Towleroad, which has become an important source for gay news, technology, pop culture, travel and more.
– Karin Wang, vice president of programs at the Asian Pacific American Legal Center, is a founding steering committee member of API Equality-LA, a coalition of LGBT and allied Asian/Pacific Islander groups working to advance marriage equality and promote positive images of LGBT Asians and Pacific Islanders.

About the L.A. Gay & Lesbian Center:
Since 1971 the L.A. Gay & Lesbian Center has been building the health, advocating for the rights and enriching the lives of lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender people. Our wide array of services and programs includes: free HIV/AIDS care and medications for those most in need; housing, food, clothing and support for homeless LGBT youth; low-cost counseling and addiction-recovery services; essential services for LGBT-parented families and seniors; legal services; health education and HIV prevention programs; transgender services; cultural arts and much more. Visit us on the Web at: www.lagaycenter.org.