California Equality: Wait til 2012 to attack gay marriage ban
(San Francisco) California gay rights activists are at odds over when to ask voters to repeal the state’s same-sex marriage ban, with one of the largest groups saying it needs until 2012 to put together a winning campaign and two others saying they plan go to the polls next year.
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Tags: Ban San, Equality, Gay California, Gay Marriage Ban, Gay Rights Activists, marriage, Odds, Polls, same sex marriage, San Francisco CaliforniaBackers of Gay Marriage Rethink California Push
LOS ANGELES — Discouraged by stubborn poll numbers and pessimistic political consultants, major financial backers of same-sex marriage are cautioning gay rights groups to delay a campaign to overturn California’s ban on such unions until at least 2012.
Earlier this year, many supporters of same-sex marriage seemed eager to mount a 2010 campaign to overturn Proposition 8, which was passed by California voters in November and defined marriage as “between a man and a woman.”
But the timing of another campaign has since been questioned by several of the movement’s big donors, including David Bohnett, a millionaire philanthropist and technology entrepreneur who gave more than $1 million to the unsuccessful campaign to defeat Proposition 8.
“In conversations with a number of my fellow major No on 8 donors,” Mr. Bohnett said in an e-mail message, “I find that they share my sentiment: namely, that we will step up to the plate — with resources and talent — when the time is right.”
“The only thing worse than losing in 2008,” he added, “would be to lose again in 2010.”
The issue of when to go back to the polls was also the central topic at a contentious “leadership summit” held Saturday at a church in San Bernardino, east of Los Angeles, where about 200 gay rights advocates gathered to discuss their next step. It was the second large meeting of gay leaders since late May when the California Supreme Court ruled against a legal challenge to Proposition 8, which passed with 52 percent of the vote.
Shortly after the court’s decision, officials at Equality California, one of the largest gay rights groups in California, issued an online plea for donations for a possible 2010 campaign, citing a need to capitalize on anger over the decision and on the seeming momentum from the recent legalization of same-sex marriage in several other states.
But that thinking has apparently evolved.
Marc Solomon, marriage director for Equality California, said he spent June and early July asking the opinions of nearly two dozen California political consultants and pollsters and had been surprised by the almost unanimous opinion that a 2010 race was a bad idea.
“I expected having watched the protests and the real pain that the L.G.B.T. community had experienced that there would be some real measurable remorse in the electorate,” Mr. Solomon said, referring to lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender people. “But if you look at the poll numbers since November, they really haven’t moved at all.”
A major factor in any California balloting, of course, is money; campaigns here are remarkably expensive, with a number of costly media markets. The Proposition 8 campaign, for example, cost more than $80 million, with opponents spending some $43 million.
Sarah Callahan, ch
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Maine campaign heats up
With the prospect of a November referendum on same-sex marriage in Maine all but certain, pro-equality advocates are gearing up for a bruising battle to preserve the state’s marriage equality bill, signed by Gov. John Baldacci in May. Since January, Maine Freedom to Marry has been ramping up a vast field campaign to identify pro-equality voters. Without a presidential or gubernatorial race to bring voters out, Maine Freedom to Marry campaign manager Jesse Connolly said grassroots fieldwork is essential to finding voters who support marriage equality and to turning them out at the polls on Election Day.
“This campaign is really about having one-on-one conversations with Maine voters. … We’re raising money, we’re building a campaign, but we’re really excited about this great work the field effort has been doing,” said Connolly.
Yet campaign finance reports suggest that pro-equality advocates may face an uphill battle. Thus far, anti-gay activists have outpaced pro-equality advocates in fundraising. Much of that money has come from the national religious right organizations that backed the successful campaign to pass California’s Proposition 8 last year. See Maine campaign heats up
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A consensus: among consultants Wait until 2012 To Repeal Prop 8
he advice is piling up on one side for folks who want to see same sex marriage legalized in California: Wait until 2012 to ask voters to overturn Proposition 8.
We’ve told you about the three LGBT coalitions of color who suggested waiting, and the nation’s oldest LGBT Democratic club saying the same. Now some of California’s top political consultants are joining the chorus.
Now, now. We know that some gay marriage fans blame consultants for the ruinous anti-Prop 8 campaign. But Equality California marriage director Marc Solomon — who helped lead the successful drive for marriage in Massachusetts — asked seven to share their thoughts on the 2010 v. 2012 question. Plus, they asked what the LGBT community and their allies should do to prepare to go back to the ballot. Three were openly LGBT (including two who are married) and one is a Republican.
The consensus: Wait until 2012.
Sue Burnside, co-chair of the National Gay & Lesbian Victory Fund Campaign Board, is “convinced that we should refrain from rushing in 2010, and instead to build on grassroots passion and strategically prepare for a ‘Yes on Marriage Equality’ referendum in 2012.” Ditto for Mark Armour and Rick Claussen suggests “a multi-year campaign that culminates in an election when the time is right.”
“If you do UNSUCCESSFULLY undertake this issue at the ballot in 2010, this will further erode public support on the issue and make it harder for future efforts to succeed,” Claussen said.
Even though Democratic consultant Richie Ross — who has won a bazillion races in California going back a few decades — doesn’t offer a definitive suggestion, he presents a raw numbers breakdown that suggests that by 2012 there will be more young voters on the rolls (likely to vote for gay marriage) and more older voters (likely to oppose) dying off.
Dave Fleischer, who has worked on many gay-related ballot measures over the years, worries about money. Each side on the Prop 8 battle raised at least $40 million. “The most conventional path to victory employed by a wide variety of campaign strategists — bury your opposition by dramatically outspending them, effectively drowning out their message — isn’t an option when the opposition is as well-funded as ours is in California.” He worries that the 66 weeks until Nov 2010 “is a very brief time to raise $40-50 million.”
Plus, he worries if “our strategy, in a lower turnout year, (can) insure that those who voted withus in 2008 return to the polls in greater numbers than those who voted against us? We can certainly try. But we have to acknowledge that this would be very difficult. Key blocs of our supporters, such as younger voters, often turn out to vote in reduced numbers in off-years.”
Former Los Angeles Times pollster Jill Darling said “Did the 2008 campaign move voters? Are the post-elections efforts having any effect? Nothing measurable, as of May.”
See The consensus: Wait until 2012.
San Francisco Chronicle
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Congressional Race in California Draws a High-Profile Cast
WALNUT CREEK, Calif. — With competitive races in Congress a rarity in California, the unexpected availability of a seat here has set off a sudden and furious chase, with at least a dozen candidates and a mélange of political styles and personal storylines.
California’s 10th Congressional District, a sprawling inkblot made up of a collection of suburbs east of San Francisco, has been represented since 1997 by Ellen O. Tauscher, a Democrat who resigned after being confirmed on June 25 to a top post in the State Department.
The field to succeed her includes the lieutenant governor, two state lawmakers, a decorated Iraqi war veteran who is openly gay and a former newspaper reporter. And that does not even include the Republican candidates in this Democratic-leaning district.
The crush of hopefuls, said Henry Brady, a professor and dean of the public policy school at University of California, Berkeley, might stem in part from the diversity of the district, which extends from the liberal Bay Area to more conservative territory inland.
“These seats don’t come available very much, and the reason is very simple: geography,” Dr. Brady said. “The Democrats are primarily on the coast, and the Republicans are in the Central Valley and the mountains, so it’s very hard to build a competitive district. But this has the potential to be one.”
The lieutenant governor, John Garamendi, is considered the early favorite to replace Ms. Tauscher. Mr. Garamendi, a Democrat who had considered running for governor next year, said he opted instead for Congress in large part because of the abbreviated campaign. A primary, followed by a special election, to complete Ms. Tauscher’s term must be held within 126 days of the governor setting the date. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger issued a proclamation Friday declaring Nov. 3 the date for the special election.
“I thought, How am I going to spend two valuable years of my life?” said Mr. Garamendi, 64, who previously served as the deputy secretary of interior in the Clinton administration as well as the California’s first elected insurance commissioner. “Am I going spend two years dialing for dollars, or am I going to spend four months out ringing doorbells and campaigning person to person and the other 20 months working on issues?”
Mr. Garamendi’s principal challengers among the Democrats, some polls show, are State Senator Mark James DeSaulnier and Assemblywoman Joan Buchanan. Both were elected to their current posts last fall.
Mr. DeSaulnier, 57, is a former mayor, city councilman and assemblyman, who says his career comes in spite a devastating personal experience with politics: a scandal involving his father, Judge Edward J. DeSaulnier Jr., who was removed from the bench of the Massachusetts Superior Court and disbarred in 1972 after being accused of rigging a sentence for the Mafia. The older Mr. DeSaulnier was never charged with a crime but was disgraced nonetheless and committed suicide in 1989.
“I’ve been very affected by my father’s journey,” said Mr. DeSaulnier, who worked as a restaurateur before running for office. “And I’ve loved my public life.”
The rest of the Democratic field is not as well known, though one candidate has attracted some national attention: Anthony Woods, a 28-year-old graduate of the United States Military Academy at West Point and a veteran of the Iraq war who was awarded the Bronze Star for two tours of duty. Shortly after his return from combat, while at Harvard working toward his master’s degree, Captain Woods told military superiors that he is gay, resulting in an honorable discharge.
While considered a long shot for the Congressional seat, Mr. Woods would be the first openly gay black man in Congress, though he has been careful on the campaign trail to trumpet more than his sexuality.
“The first thing I talk to voters about is their priorities, universal health care and economic security,” he said. “I’m not hiding who I am, but they’re just as interested in talking about the issues as I am.”
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Gays Step Up Efforts to Reverse Gay-as-Godless Stereotype
A groundbreaking survey about the faith lives of gay Americans that the Barna Group put out last week got surprisingly little attention. In my latest God & Country column for U.S. News Weekly, I tied the Barna survey’s fascinating portrait of gay religious life to the gay rights movement’s recent efforts to ratchet up outreach and messaging. Much of the work is aimed at reversing the gay-as-Godless stereotype.
Here’s the top:
Though he was raised in the United Methodist Church, Harry Knox knew he couldn’t become a minister in his denomination because it doesn’t ordain openly gay members. He enrolled in a seminary of the more liberal United Church of Christ but was eventually denied ordination anyway. “My whole career as an activist is an accidental ministry,” says Knox, 48, who now works at the Human Rights Campaign, the nation’s largest gay rights group. “I would rather be a local pastor.”
Instead, since 2005, Knox has built HRC’s “religion and faith program,” which works to combat the stereotype of the gay, lesbian, bisexual, and transgender community as antireligious. “For far too long, LGBT organizations did not put religious allies at the forefront of our efforts,” Knox says. “That’s a mistake we’re making less often now.”
Those religious allies may be more plentiful than most Americans think. A Barna Group survey out last week shows that most gay Americans lead pretty robust faith lives. While 72 percent of straight American adults describe their faith as “very important” in their lives, so do 60 percent of gays and lesbians. Almost as many, 58 percent, say they’ve made a personal and ongoing commitment to Jesus Christ.
And though they are much less likely than straights to share the beliefs of born-again Christians—which comes as no surprise, since most churches in the born-again tradition condemn homosexuality—the Barna survey found that 27 percent of gays do hold those beliefs. “Many in the Christian community assume there’s this significant gap between heterosexuals and homosexuals in terms of faith beliefs and activities,” says George Barna, the country’s top pollster on religious issues, who supervised the survey. “While there are statistically significant differences, it’s the narrow size of the gap that’s most surprising.”
The poll unleashed a torrent of hate mail, mostly from believers furious with Barna’s conclusion: that many gays are Bible-believing Christians. But more and more gay rights organizations are joining HRC in stepping up efforts to highlight the faith beliefs of many gay Americans, largely through religious outreach programs. And some religious traditions and denominations are taking steps to welcome gay and lesbian members.
Gay rights activists say that the 2004 election, when voters in 11 states passed gay marriage bans that were heavily promoted through churches, was a wake-up call. To help counter the image of the gay marriage battle as a fight between gays and religious Americans, HRC, the National Gay and Lesbian Task Force, and other national gay rights groups quickly hired religious outreach staff.
Read the full story here.
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U.S. News & World Report
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On same-sex marriage/civil unions, the air is leaking out of the tire
ast month Texas Lyceum, a non-partisan, business-oriented group, released one of its periodic polls on current issues, and the results for the most part were what one would expect in a conservative state. By margins of about 2-to-1, Texas opposed any further bailouts for automakers or banks. An even bigger margin – including a majority of whites, blacks and Hispanics – supported the concept of a voter ID requirement.
But on one issue, the poll did raise some eyebrows. According to the survey, a majority of Texans would permit some form of same-sex union to be recognized: 25 percent favor same-sex marriage and 32 percent would allow civil unions, while 36 percent oppose either arrangement. Although Democrats and independents were more liberal on this issue than Republicans, a thin Republican majority – 14 percent for same-sex marriage, 37 percent for civil unions – now favor one arrangement or the other.
That indicates that Texans are more conservative than the rest of the country on this issue, but not dramatically so. A CBS News/New York Times poll conducted at about the same time showed that 33 percent of Americans favor same-sex marriage, 30 percent would permit civil unions and 32 percent oppose any legal recognition of same-sex or lesbian couples.
This national poll also showed opinions on the issue are shifting back and forth: In a CBS News/New York Times poll conducted in April, support for same-sex marriage was at 42 percent. That decrease in support could be a result of the rising visibility of the issue: In June, New Hampshire Gov. John Lynch signed a bill which made his state the sixth in the country to allow same-sex marriage.
The fact that attitudes in Texas aren’t greatly out of line with the rest of the country doesn’t portend any big changes in the law in this region of the country, any time soon. If same-sex marriage/civil unions had been polled last month in Tennessee or Alabama, opposition to either one would probably have been significantly higher. But it may be an indication that as a political issue which can easily get traction, the air is slowly leaking out of the tire.
Most of the states, and all the Southern states, have passed some form of Defense of Marriage Act, and all the Southern states except North Carolina have passed constitutional bans on same-sex marriage. This makes it less, not more likely that conservative candidates in these states will get much mileage out of the issue than they have in recent years. It’s much more likely that opposition to same-sex unions will galvanize votes in states like New Jersey or Pennsylvania, where changes in current laws are a greater possibility.
None of this is to say conservative candidates won’t be able to raise money and garner endorsements on the issue well into the next decade. But it’s noteworthy that the strongest opposition to gay marriage in nearly every poll comes from African-Americans, who aren’t likely to swing behind candidates who are conservative on other issues.
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An Exorcism of Hate
A recently posted YouTube video shows church members in southern Connecticut performing an exorcism on a 16-year-old boy in order to remove the “homosexual demons” from his body. The video is horrifying to watch — the church audience screams at the supposed evil spirits as the boy convulses on the ground.
The logic and belief set behind this act are so far beyond my comprehension that it defies comment. What I do find compelling, however, is the church’s response to the uproar that the video created. “We have nothing against homosexuals,” protested the Reverend Patricia McKinney. “I just don’t agree with their lifestyle.” I frequently hear comments such as this from those who oppose equality for homosexuals. These people say they love gay people — they even have gay friends and family! — but it’s unfortunately “against their beliefs” to treat homosexuals equally. This video, however, is a perfect example of how this explanation is a blatant lie.
The phrase “I just don’t agree with,” connotes a mild dislike. I don’t agree with mustard, but I can still enjoy my dinner to the fullest when it’s present at the table. What people such as Reverend McKinney feel toward homosexuals is nothing short of loathing. It is impossible for her to argue she respects gays when she believes that demonic spirits live inside their bodies. She could preach tolerance to her parish every Sunday, but her actions unambiguously declare that being gay is a sinful, satanic state that must be cured. McKinney clearly has something very big against homosexuals, and it’s insulting for her to suggest otherwise.
Politicians are guilty of similar dishonesty, but they tend to be more subtle. A senator who opposes gay marriage shouldn’t be able to say that he’s protecting “family values.” He should say that he believes that gay couples are incapable of raising the kinds of families that our society accepts. A congresswoman who disqualifies a lesbian couple from adopting children should proclaim that two women will irreparably damage a child should their adoption request succeed. It’s the typical political non-speak, but it’s even more damaging when those who say it can claim that they aren’t prejudiced.
Outright homophobia has become socially unacceptable in most circumstances. This is momentous progress from a hatred that had until now been painfully public. But, ironically, this political correctness is now hurting the gay rights movement.
Homophobic people, such as Reverend McKinney, should have to state their beliefs openly, without duplicitous assertions that they “have nothing against homosexuals.” What they should really be saying is that homosexuality is disgusting and perverted — that any person practicing it is a sinner who needs to be saved now before suffering an eternity in Hell. Judging from their comments and actions, that’s what they believe, and they should own up to those principles.
Polls have shown that young people as a whole have a more liberal view regarding homosexuality than their parents. It stands to reason that, as a society, we’re marching on a path towards equality and tolerance for gay people. But I hope this liberalization permeates far deeper than the blatant dishonesty of people such as Reverend McKinney and her congregation. Those of us who actually have nothing against homosexuals — who feel no need to cast the ‘homosexual demons’ from their body— should reject such flagrant duplicity.
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Walsh: A step back for gay Utahns
Reading the headlines, the news isn’t good for gay Utahns.
Former Equality Utah Director Mike Thompson has moved to San Francisco, taking his organizing skills from Holladay to the Haight. He says it’s personal, not professional.
Then, Pride Week opened with what looks like a hate crime.
Christopher Vonnegut Allen was arrested after allegedly beating his gay neighbors — a man and a woman — bloody in Ogden. One victim needed surgery. You may not have heard of it. Prosecutors charged Allen with only one count of burglary.
And this week, two nice Mormon ladies from Santa Cruz decided to give their unwilling church one more chance to reconcile with its gay members and the LGBT community outside the flock.
While the rest of the country moves forward — New Hampshire, New York, Iowa, for goodness sake — this place seems perpetually stuck.
It probably helps that Thompson missed the headlines. Still, he’s optimistic.
“You can’t have a defeatist attitude,” he says. “You’ve got to press against it in order to even hope for a change.”
He points to Salt Lake City’s nondiscrimination ordinance and domestic partners registry, an anti-bullying law, polls that show Utahns supported the Common Ground Initiative (even if lawmakers didn’t).
“Maybe they’re not significant in some people’s minds, but there are measurables there,” he says. “People are having conversations. Change is going to come sooner or later.”
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Walsh: A step back for gay Utahns
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A gay marriage poll released by the L.A. Times reveals that a yawning racial chasm exists over the issue. Pollsters found that a substantial majority in a sampling of 1,500 registered voters in Los Angeles — 56 percent — favored legalizing same-sex marriage, while only 37 percent opposed it. However, after parsing the demographics, vivid ethnic demarcations emerge. (See L.A. Weekly reporter Patrick Range McDonald’s extensive coverage of the growing outreach by pro-gay-marriage advocates into both the ethnic and agrarian communities of California.)
Caucasian voters favor legalization by a huge 68 percent margin, with 27 percent opposing it. The breakdown among African Americans is substantially, if not quite completely, reversed: 54 percent oppose gay marriage, with 37 percent supporting it. (Conflicting points of views in the local African American community have been glimpsed on the L.A. Sentinel’s opinion page, with lesbian commentator Jasmyne A. Cannick for gay marriage and conservative columnist Firpo Carr condemning it.)
Meanwhile, the Times reports that Latinos are evenly split, with 45 percent supporting and 46 opposing same-sex weddings. It is the swing Latino electorate that advocates on both sides will seek to win over in an anticipated 2010 ballot rematch of Proposition 8. See
Poll Finds Racial, Ethnic Divides Over Gay Marriage
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