Gates Plan May Be Beginning of the End of ‘Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell’

Pentagon Studies Ways to Relax Enforcement as First Step; Impact on Troops Would be Minimal

SANTA BARBARA, Calif. — In the wake of yesterday’s unexpected Pentagon announcement about gays in the military, experts say the “don’t ask, don’t tell” policy may be on the brink of irreversible change that would speed up its demise. After speaking with President Obama last week, Defense Secretary Robert Gates has asked military lawyers to explore how to modify enforcement of the policy in ways that are “more flexible until the law is changed.” The President Monday reiterated his intention to end discrimination against gay troops, saying he is working with Congress and the military to do so.

Christopher Neff, political director of the Palm Center, said the remarks by Secretary Gates marked the first time the Defense Secretary has made clear that the Pentagon is onboard with the President’s determination to lift the ban. “‘Don’t ask, don’t tell’ is a package — both a law and a policy — that hasn’t been penetrated for fifteen years,” Neff said. “This is a crack in humpty dumpty, and it gets the ball rolling for a political solution since it gives cover to lawmakers who have been waiting for a nod from the Pentagon.”

Neff said that even a small change in how “don’t ask, don’t tell” is enforced could represent a seismic political shift, even if it does not have a substantial operational impact on most gay troops, who would still be subject to discharge. If the military stops applying certain provisions of the policy, as Gates says it is considering, it would send a signal to Congress about the inevitability of change. “That’s why executive action is the key to unlocking the political stalemate,” said Neff. “Even the statements themselves, although they do await follow-up action, have changed the political landscape.”

Last month, the Palm Center published a report which outlined several legal and political rationales for executive branch discretion in regulating, and even halting, discharges provided for by federal statute. One of those rationales is closely linked to the new review announced by Secretary Gates. According to the Palm Center study, “the ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’ policy itself, as codified by Congress, also grants authority to the Department of Defense to determine the procedures under which investigations, separation proceedings, and other personnel actions under the authority of 10 U.S.C. Section 654 will be carried out … The Secretary of Defense has discretion to determine the specific manner in which ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’ will be implemented.” Prior to the release of the Palm Center’s report, most observers had assumed that only Congress or the federal courts end the firings of gay troops.

Amidst mounting public pressure, White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said this week that he thought “don’t ask, don’t tell” would be repealed by the end of the President’s first term. Nathaniel Frank, senior research fellow at the Palm Center, said this week’s developments were politically significant. “Serious discussions have been launched by the President himself,” said Frank. “Obama has said this is a failed policy that harms national security, so these measures are not just fixes, but may be the beginning of the end.” Frank added that any regulatory changes that fall short of halting all discharges will be “window-dressing,” but he focused on the implications for further political change. “This means the hot potato party may finally be over, as the President understands where the buck stops.”

In the wake of this week’s developments, the Palm Center announced that it is preparing a more extensive legal analysis of administrative options for relaxing the application of certain provisions of “don’t ask, don’t tell.” Neff said that the Defense Department should invite public input as the rules are re-drafted, which would be consistent with past processes when military regulations have been

changed. “This review should be no different,” he said.

Organizations and individuals who have endorsed or endorsed consideration of the use of executive action based on the legal theories outlined in the Palm Center’s study include Secretary Gates, 77 members of Congress, the New York Times editorial page, Center for American Progress, Human Rights Campaign, Servicemembers Legal Defense Network, Hendrik Hertzberg of the New Yorker, the political consultant Robert Shrum, and former White House aide Richard Socarides.

The Palm Center is a research institute at the University of California, Santa Barbara. The Center uses rigorous social science to inform public discussions of controversial social issues, enabling policy outcomes to be informed more by evidence than by emotion. Its data-driven approach is premised on the notion that the public makes wise choices on social issues when high-quality information is available. For more information, visit www.palmcenter.ucsb.edu.

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What Does the Top-Secret California Marriage Polling Reveal?

At 11:30am PST today, an umbrella group of gay organizations like the Courage Campaign, National Gay and Lesbian Task Force, Marriage Equality U.S.A., and Equality California will deliver the results from its polling of where California’s voters stand on same-sex marriage. Yes, this is the same data Fresno organizers wanted to keep secret. To those involved, the data is of utmost importance, because it could determine whether to push for a ballot measure overturning Prop 8 in 2010, or whether the analysis shows we should wait until 2012, or even head in another course of action. The results of the poll will be delivered over a conference call (only media are invited to join). But Queerty received a preview of what to expect.

“Opinion on marriage for same-sex couples in California is almost evenly divided, with opponents holding a 1% to 2% edge,” says the data from the Poll4Equality Coalition, which conducted the survey. Depending on how you look at it, that’s either good or bad news. Bad, because it shows we still have more convincing to do. And good, because it shows there’s only a small margin to overcome.

But knowing the state is nearly evenly divided on gay marriage, the important information the poll delivers is: If we’re going to put the issue on the ballot, how do we phrase the wording?

When asked, “Do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose allowing same-sex couples to be legally married?,” the survey found 47 percent saying “favor” and 48 percent saying “oppose.” The data shows “support increases if the language specifically includes a provision that says no clergy will be required to perform a service that goes against their faith,” according to the the document provided to Queerty.

As for the 2010 vs. 2012 issue? “Modeling turnout scenarios for 2010 and 2012 indicate that there is a small advantage to same?sex marriage supporters in a 2012 electorate. This is based on a considerably higher turnout that is expected in 2012 due to the Presidential election. However, the additional voters that will come to the polls in a Presidential election are divided in their view of marriage for same?sex couples. Voters
that will only turn out in a 2012 scenario are divided between younger voters who strongly support same?sex marriage and older Anglo, Latino and African American religious voters who are opposed to marriage for same?sex couples. While our modeling does indicate that 2012 will provide an extra 1?2 points of support for a marriage equality ballot measure, this difference may be impacted by many other factors in the larger political landscape at that time.”

See What Does the Top-Secret California Marriage Polling Reveal? Queerty

See What Does the Top-Secret California Marriage Polling Reveal?

Queerty

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Poll: CA split on same sex marriage/Ballot measure for 2010

Just as another New England state greenlit same sex marriage Wednesday, a new California poll released Wednesday found that Californians are roughly split on same sex marriage. (”When asked, ‘Do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose allowing same — sex couples to be legally married,” 47 percent say favor and 48 percent say oppose. The poll was taken before last week’s CA Supreme Court decision affirming Proposition 8.

So dead even, in margin of error terms, said co-pollster David Binder.

“I’m not suprised,” said Charles Sheehan, co-director of the Alice B. Toklas LGBT Democratic Club. “It’s better than we were last fall.”

The poll was comissioned by a group of same sex marriage supporter groups as a way to help them figure out their next steps — like when to ask voters to vote again on the issue. Here’s what Binder and co-pollster Amy Simon found:

The 2012 Option:

“Higher turnout because of presidential election. But the pollsters “the additional voters that will come to the polls in a Presidential election are divided in their view of marriage for same-sex couples. Voters that will only turn out in a 2012 scenario are divided between younger voters who strongly support same-sex marriage and older Anglo, Latino and African American religious voters who are opposed to marriage for sameâ€sex couples.”

“While our modeling does indicate that 2012 will provide an extra 1-2 points of support for a marriage equality ballot measure, this difference may be impacted by many other factors in the larger political landscape at that time,” say the pollsters.

The 2010 Option: “It is likely that the Democratic nominee for Governor in 2010 will be an advocate of marriage equality, which would provide a high level spokesperson for the issue. In 2012, there is more uncertainty about the stance that President Obama may have on a marriage equality ballot measure during his expected re-election campaign.”

Nonetheless, reps from some of the groups anticipated to lead the next same sex marriage ballot initiative sound like they’re leaning toward 2010. Polls conducted by both Equality California and Courage Campaign have overwhelmingly said their supporters want to go to the ballot in 2010. Over the next month — in an effort called the “Get Engaged Tour” — organizations supporting same sex marriage will ask their members their preference.