What Does the Top-Secret California Marriage Polling Reveal?
At 11:30am PST today, an umbrella group of gay organizations like the Courage Campaign, National Gay and Lesbian Task Force, Marriage Equality U.S.A., and Equality California will deliver the results from its polling of where California’s voters stand on same-sex marriage. Yes, this is the same data Fresno organizers wanted to keep secret. To those involved, the data is of utmost importance, because it could determine whether to push for a ballot measure overturning Prop 8 in 2010, or whether the analysis shows we should wait until 2012, or even head in another course of action. The results of the poll will be delivered over a conference call (only media are invited to join). But Queerty received a preview of what to expect.
“Opinion on marriage for same-sex couples in California is almost evenly divided, with opponents holding a 1% to 2% edge,” says the data from the Poll4Equality Coalition, which conducted the survey. Depending on how you look at it, that’s either good or bad news. Bad, because it shows we still have more convincing to do. And good, because it shows there’s only a small margin to overcome.
But knowing the state is nearly evenly divided on gay marriage, the important information the poll delivers is: If we’re going to put the issue on the ballot, how do we phrase the wording?
When asked, “Do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose allowing same-sex couples to be legally married?,” the survey found 47 percent saying “favor” and 48 percent saying “oppose.” The data shows “support increases if the language specifically includes a provision that says no clergy will be required to perform a service that goes against their faith,” according to the the document provided to Queerty.
As for the 2010 vs. 2012 issue? “Modeling turnout scenarios for 2010 and 2012 indicate that there is a small advantage to same?sex marriage supporters in a 2012 electorate. This is based on a considerably higher turnout that is expected in 2012 due to the Presidential election. However, the additional voters that will come to the polls in a Presidential election are divided in their view of marriage for same?sex couples. Voters
that will only turn out in a 2012 scenario are divided between younger voters who strongly support same?sex marriage and older Anglo, Latino and African American religious voters who are opposed to marriage for same?sex couples. While our modeling does indicate that 2012 will provide an extra 1?2 points of support for a marriage equality ballot measure, this difference may be impacted by many other factors in the larger political landscape at that time.”
See What Does the Top-Secret California Marriage Polling Reveal? Queerty
See What Does the Top-Secret California Marriage Polling Reveal?
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Poll: CA split on same sex marriage/Ballot measure for 2010
Just as another New England state greenlit same sex marriage Wednesday, a new California poll released Wednesday found that Californians are roughly split on same sex marriage. (”When asked, ‘Do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose allowing same — sex couples to be legally married,” 47 percent say favor and 48 percent say oppose. The poll was taken before last week’s CA Supreme Court decision affirming Proposition 8.
So dead even, in margin of error terms, said co-pollster David Binder.
“I’m not suprised,” said Charles Sheehan, co-director of the Alice B. Toklas LGBT Democratic Club. “It’s better than we were last fall.”
The poll was comissioned by a group of same sex marriage supporter groups as a way to help them figure out their next steps — like when to ask voters to vote again on the issue. Here’s what Binder and co-pollster Amy Simon found:
The 2012 Option:
“Higher turnout because of presidential election. But the pollsters “the additional voters that will come to the polls in a Presidential election are divided in their view of marriage for same-sex couples. Voters that will only turn out in a 2012 scenario are divided between younger voters who strongly support same-sex marriage and older Anglo, Latino and African American religious voters who are opposed to marriage for sameâ€sex couples.”
“While our modeling does indicate that 2012 will provide an extra 1-2 points of support for a marriage equality ballot measure, this difference may be impacted by many other factors in the larger political landscape at that time,” say the pollsters.
The 2010 Option: “It is likely that the Democratic nominee for Governor in 2010 will be an advocate of marriage equality, which would provide a high level spokesperson for the issue. In 2012, there is more uncertainty about the stance that President Obama may have on a marriage equality ballot measure during his expected re-election campaign.”
Nonetheless, reps from some of the groups anticipated to lead the next same sex marriage ballot initiative sound like they’re leaning toward 2010. Polls conducted by both Equality California and Courage Campaign have overwhelmingly said their supporters want to go to the ballot in 2010. Over the next month — in an effort called the “Get Engaged Tour” — organizations supporting same sex marriage will ask their members their preference.
| June 03 2009 at 04:54 PM
See Poll: CA split on same sex marriage/Ballot measure for 2010 …
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Original source : http://gay_blog.blogspot.com/2009/06/poll-ca-split…
