Field Poll: Brown has big lead in Calif gov’s race
(Sacramento) A new Field Poll shows California Attorney General Jerry Brown with a strong lead in next year’s race for governor, even before he’s declared himself a candidate and despite months of campaigning by his Democratic rival and three Republicans vying for their party’s nomination.
The poll released Thursday found that …
Tags: Calif Gov, California Attorney General, Campaigning, Democratic Rival, Field Poll, Jerry Brown, Lead, Nomination, Republicans, Sacramento CaliforniaPoll: For many, Golden State no longer shines
(Sacramento, Calif.) The California dream has faded since the 1970s for many in the Golden State, according to a new Field Poll.
Just 41 percent of registered voters agree the state is “one of the best places to live,” a sharp drop from the 76 percent who thought so 30 years …
Tags: 1970s, Best Places, California Dream, Field Poll, Golden State, Registered VotersGay marriage a minefield for candidates for California governor
From the start of his run for governor, San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom has tried to show there is more to his career than the gesture that won him worldwide fame: his 2004 decree legalizing same-sex marriage.
Yet there he was Tuesday on CNN’s “Larry King Live,” speaking out for gay rights after the state Supreme Court upheld Proposition 8, the same-sex marriage ban that Californians passed in November.
For Newsom and five major-party rivals, the resurgence of the same-sex marriage issue has added a new complication to the race for governor.
If gay rights groups get their way, the nominees to succeed Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger will share the November 2010 ballot with a measure to repeal Proposition 8, turning an emotionally charged cultural issue into a central focus of the campaign.
Across the nation, the subject has grown more challenging for candidates of all kinds as the mere concept has given way to the reality of tens of thousands of married gay couples. Massachusetts, Connecticut, Vermont, Maine and Iowa have legalized same-sex marriage.
Voters have also shifted their views. In April, a Washington Post-ABC News poll found that 49% of Americans said gay marriage should be legal, and 46% said it should be illegal. Three years earlier, 36% had said it should be legal, and 58% had said it should not.
“The trajectory of public opinion on this issue has been dramatic,” said Democratic pollster Mark Mellman.
In California, where Newsom’s rebel edict in 2004 touched off the court battles that spawned some 18,000 marriages that were declared valid Tuesday, candidates for governor face multiple dangers on the issue. Although support for gay marriage has risen over the last decade — the 52% yes vote on Proposition 8 was down from 61% on a similar measure in 2000 — the issue still sharply divides Californians.
“People care about this one — a lot — on both sides,” said Steve Smith, a Democratic strategist who worked on the campaign to defeat Proposition 8.
A Field Poll taken three months ago affirmed stark generational and ideological splits on same-sex marriage.
Younger voters were far more likely to approve of it than older voters. And Democrats overwhelmingly favored it, while Republicans were strongly opposed.
In that environment, candidates for governor are juggling wildly different needs for the primaries and the general election. See Gay marriage a minefield for candidates for California governor Los Angeles Times * Tags = gay men gay news lesbian news transgender bisexual
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Original source : http://gay_blog.blogspot.com/2009/05/gay-marriage-…
Demographics suggest Prop. 8 may have a short life
If the Proposition 8 battle is replayed in 2010, demographic trends alone could eliminate the initiative’s winning margin, according to an analysis of polling and census data.
Gay rights groups have already vowed a 2010 repeal fight against the initiative, which took away a right for same-sex couples to marry that had been granted in a California Supreme in May. Given that conventional wisdom holds that it is easier to get a no vote than a yes vote, a repeal campaign could have a harder mission than the unsuccessful No on 8 campaign did this year.
“We have not determined, with our allies, exactly when that will be,” said Rick Jacobs, founder and director of the Courage Campaign, which has gathered over 300,000 names on an online petition calling for a repeal. “But we will be absolutely ready to put it on the ballot in 2010.”
If the repeal side does get on the ballot, they’ll be facing a very different electorate. According to the Field Poll, voters 65 and older made up 19 percent of the 13 million people who cast ballots in this election — about 2.5 million voters. According to polling by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), six in 10 voted for Prop. 8. The measure won by 4.6 percentage points, or 591,644 total votes.
According to death rate data provided by the California Department of Public Health, over a third of those over 65 die each year. If you applied these deaths rates to voters in this age group, over two years, deaths could eliminate 1.5 million voters over 65 — which would suggest 900,000 yes on Prop. 8 voters and only 600,000 no voters, for a net loss of 300,000 votes for the yes side.
However, it’s probably not quite this simple, according to PPIC demographer Hans Johnson, who noted that it was probably healthier older people with lots of years ahead of them who cast more of the ballots.
“If you’re really sick, you probably didn’t vote,” Johnson said. “If you‘re in a nursing home or suffer from dementia, you probably didn’t vote.” See Demographics suggest Prop. 8 may have a short life
Capitol Weekly, CA
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Original source : http://gay_blog.blogspot.com/2008/12/demographics-…
