New study offers first demographic picture of gay spouses

(Los Angeles) The Williams Institute for Sexual Orientation Law and Public Policy at UCLA Law issued a report today analyzing newly released data from the US Census Bureau. The study examines data from the 2008 American Community Survey (ACS).

For the first time, the Census Bureau has released data in which …

White House Looks to Include Same-Sex Unions in Census Count

WASHINGTON — The White House said Thursday it was seeking ways to include same-sex marriages, unions and partnerships in 2010 Census data, the second time in a week the administration has signaled a policy change of interest to the gay community.

The administration has directed the Census Bureau to determine changes needed in tabulation software to allow for same-sex marriage data to be released early in 2011 with other detailed demographic information from the decennial count. The bureau historically hasn’t released same-sex marriage data.

The gay community strongly supported President Barack Obama during the 2008 election. But some gay activists say they have been frustrated by what they see as his slow approach to rolling back discriminatory policies.

See White House Looks to Include Same-Sex Unions in Census Count

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Demographics suggest Prop. 8 may have a short life

If the Proposition 8 battle is replayed in 2010, demographic trends alone could eliminate the initiative’s winning margin, according to an analysis of polling and census data.

Gay rights groups have already vowed a 2010 repeal fight against the initiative, which took away a right for same-sex couples to marry that had been granted in a California Supreme in May. Given that conventional wisdom holds that it is easier to get a no vote than a yes vote, a repeal campaign could have a harder mission than the unsuccessful No on 8 campaign did this year.

“We have not determined, with our allies, exactly when that will be,” said Rick Jacobs, founder and director of the Courage Campaign, which has gathered over 300,000 names on an online petition calling for a repeal. “But we will be absolutely ready to put it on the ballot in 2010.”

If the repeal side does get on the ballot, they’ll be facing a very different electorate. According to the Field Poll, voters 65 and older made up 19 percent of the 13 million people who cast ballots in this election — about 2.5 million voters. According to polling by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), six in 10 voted for Prop. 8. The measure won by 4.6 percentage points, or 591,644 total votes.

According to death rate data provided by the California Department of Public Health, over a third of those over 65 die each year. If you applied these deaths rates to voters in this age group, over two years, deaths could eliminate 1.5 million voters over 65 — which would suggest 900,000 yes on Prop. 8 voters and only 600,000 no voters, for a net loss of 300,000 votes for the yes side.

However, it’s probably not quite this simple, according to PPIC demographer Hans Johnson, who noted that it was probably healthier older people with lots of years ahead of them who cast more of the ballots.

“If you’re really sick, you probably didn’t vote,” Johnson said. “If you‘re in a nursing home or suffer from dementia, you probably didn’t vote.” See Demographics suggest Prop. 8 may have a short life
Capitol Weekly, CA