A consensus: among consultants Wait until 2012 To Repeal Prop 8

he advice is piling up on one side for folks who want to see same sex marriage legalized in California: Wait until 2012 to ask voters to overturn Proposition 8.

We’ve told you about the three LGBT coalitions of color who suggested waiting, and the nation’s oldest LGBT Democratic club saying the same. Now some of California’s top political consultants are joining the chorus.

Now, now. We know that some gay marriage fans blame consultants for the ruinous anti-Prop 8 campaign. But Equality California marriage director Marc Solomon — who helped lead the successful drive for marriage in Massachusetts — asked seven to share their thoughts on the 2010 v. 2012 question. Plus, they asked what the LGBT community and their allies should do to prepare to go back to the ballot. Three were openly LGBT (including two who are married) and one is a Republican.

The consensus: Wait until 2012.

Sue Burnside, co-chair of the National Gay & Lesbian Victory Fund Campaign Board, is “convinced that we should refrain from rushing in 2010, and instead to build on grassroots passion and strategically prepare for a ‘Yes on Marriage Equality’ referendum in 2012.” Ditto for Mark Armour and Rick Claussen suggests “a multi-year campaign that culminates in an election when the time is right.”

“If you do UNSUCCESSFULLY undertake this issue at the ballot in 2010, this will further erode public support on the issue and make it harder for future efforts to succeed,” Claussen said.

Even though Democratic consultant Richie Ross — who has won a bazillion races in California going back a few decades — doesn’t offer a definitive suggestion, he presents a raw numbers breakdown that suggests that by 2012 there will be more young voters on the rolls (likely to vote for gay marriage) and more older voters (likely to oppose) dying off.

Dave Fleischer, who has worked on many gay-related ballot measures over the years, worries about money. Each side on the Prop 8 battle raised at least $40 million. “The most conventional path to victory employed by a wide variety of campaign strategists — bury your opposition by dramatically outspending them, effectively drowning out their message — isn’t an option when the opposition is as well-funded as ours is in California.” He worries that the 66 weeks until Nov 2010 “is a very brief time to raise $40-50 million.”

Plus, he worries if “our strategy, in a lower turnout year, (can) insure that those who voted withus in 2008 return to the polls in greater numbers than those who voted against us? We can certainly try. But we have to acknowledge that this would be very difficult. Key blocs of our supporters, such as younger voters, often turn out to vote in reduced numbers in off-years.”

Former Los Angeles Times pollster Jill Darling said “Did the 2008 campaign move voters? Are the post-elections efforts having any effect? Nothing measurable, as of May.”

See The consensus: Wait until 2012.

San Francisco Chronicle

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What Does the Top-Secret California Marriage Polling Reveal?

At 11:30am PST today, an umbrella group of gay organizations like the Courage Campaign, National Gay and Lesbian Task Force, Marriage Equality U.S.A., and Equality California will deliver the results from its polling of where California’s voters stand on same-sex marriage. Yes, this is the same data Fresno organizers wanted to keep secret. To those involved, the data is of utmost importance, because it could determine whether to push for a ballot measure overturning Prop 8 in 2010, or whether the analysis shows we should wait until 2012, or even head in another course of action. The results of the poll will be delivered over a conference call (only media are invited to join). But Queerty received a preview of what to expect.

“Opinion on marriage for same-sex couples in California is almost evenly divided, with opponents holding a 1% to 2% edge,” says the data from the Poll4Equality Coalition, which conducted the survey. Depending on how you look at it, that’s either good or bad news. Bad, because it shows we still have more convincing to do. And good, because it shows there’s only a small margin to overcome.

But knowing the state is nearly evenly divided on gay marriage, the important information the poll delivers is: If we’re going to put the issue on the ballot, how do we phrase the wording?

When asked, “Do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose allowing same-sex couples to be legally married?,” the survey found 47 percent saying “favor” and 48 percent saying “oppose.” The data shows “support increases if the language specifically includes a provision that says no clergy will be required to perform a service that goes against their faith,” according to the the document provided to Queerty.

As for the 2010 vs. 2012 issue? “Modeling turnout scenarios for 2010 and 2012 indicate that there is a small advantage to same?sex marriage supporters in a 2012 electorate. This is based on a considerably higher turnout that is expected in 2012 due to the Presidential election. However, the additional voters that will come to the polls in a Presidential election are divided in their view of marriage for same?sex couples. Voters
that will only turn out in a 2012 scenario are divided between younger voters who strongly support same?sex marriage and older Anglo, Latino and African American religious voters who are opposed to marriage for same?sex couples. While our modeling does indicate that 2012 will provide an extra 1?2 points of support for a marriage equality ballot measure, this difference may be impacted by many other factors in the larger political landscape at that time.”

See What Does the Top-Secret California Marriage Polling Reveal? Queerty

See What Does the Top-Secret California Marriage Polling Reveal?

Queerty

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Claiming God is on their side, thousands rally in support of gay marriage ban

Thousands of supporters of California’s ban on same-sex marriage rallied in Fresno and San Diego on Sunday in what organizers described as a celebration of traditional wedlock and a thank-you to the California Supreme Court for upholding their voter-approved measure.The demonstrations followed Saturday’s gathering of gay rights supporters in Fresno to renew efforts to reverse Proposition 8, which the high court let stand early last week. See Thousands rally in support of gay marriage ban
Los Angeles Times

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Self-proclaimed ‘Christian’ group asks to fight suit on gay marriage

A self-anointed ‘Christian’ group that raised – and spent – pent more than $37 million in leading the campaign to pass Proposition 8 is now seeking to formally fight a federal lawsuit aimed at overturning California’s gay marriage ban.

The Alliance Defense Fund filed court papers Thursday asking U.S. District Judge Vaughn Walker to allow it to defend the constitutionality of Proposition 8.

Did you ever wonder how mnuch money they raised for ‘fighting gay marriage’ went to pay their own saleries?

See Christian group asks to fight suit on gay marriage San Jose Mercury News* Tags = gay men gay news lesbian news transgender bisexual

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California court upholds marriage ban; existing unions still legal

The California Supreme Court today upheld a ballot measure that amended the state Constitution to deny marriage rights to lesbians and gays. But the ruling did confirm the legality of 18,000 California marriages that were conducted between the time of a previous judicial order and the November election. Los Angeles Times (5/26) , ABC News (5/26) , San Jose Mercury News (Calif.)

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Lambda Legal Marks First Anniversary of Historic California Marriage Victory

‘…denying marriage to loving and committed same-sex couples is morally wrong…’
(Los Angeles, May 15, 2009) — On the first anniversary of the California Supreme Court’s historic ruling in In re Marriages, Lambda Legal Marriage Project Director Jennifer C. Pizer issued the following statement:
“One year ago today many thousands of lesbian and gay Californians became full citizens for the first time when the state supreme court ruled that we all are equal under law and everyone – gay and straight alike – must have the same right to marry the person they love. For some of us who’d worked on the case for years, the court’s clarion clear decision gave real meaning to the California Constitution’s promise of equality. And then, as more than 18,000 same-sex couples jubilantly exercised that right all over the state, family and friends shared their joy, cried during their vows, and were changed for the better.

The court’s historic decision also paved the way for the high courts of Connecticut and Iowa, which in turn gave great boosts to the legislatures in Vermont, Maine, New Hampshire and the District of Columbia. Awareness now is dawning for great numbers of Americans that denying marriage to loving and committed same-sex couples is morally wrong and inflicts real harms—government should not be in the business of discrimination. Public opinion is shifting fast toward fairness. But no minority should have to depend on the generosity of the majority to enjoy basic rights. Proposition 8′s theft of our right to marry has advanced a broadly pernicious recasting of “equal protection” that, if upheld, puts every California minority at risk. It was a sad, knee-jerk response to the sight of couples in love celebrating their happiness.

Paper is the traditional first anniversary gift and there are two obvious examples — our constitution, torn asunder by Prop 8′s antigay exception, and the high court’s imminent decision that we hope will mend that tear. Today’s anniversary reminds us that we win in court and in life when we publicly celebrate our truth, love and joy in equal measures.”

Jennifer C. Pizer is Director of Lambda Legal’s Marriage Project and co-counsel in the cases that established same-sex couples’ right to marry in California and the pending challenge to Proposition 8.

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Miss California will do anti-marriage ad

NOM, famous for their anti-gay “Gathering Storm” ad, will feature Carrie Prejean in a high-priced ad.

Same-sex marriage advocates brace for ‘Day of Decision’

The California state Supreme Court has one month left before it issues its decision on attempts to over turn a voter-approved ban on same-sex marriages in California.

Organizers for same sex marriage are preparing for Court’s decision by organizing “Day of Decision” rallies in communities throughout the state.

The Web site, www.dayofdecision.com, informs supporters that decisions are announced Mondays and Thursdays.

“Whatever the decision, we must act,” the Web site states.

If the Supreme Court rules as expected to allow the ban on same-sex marriage enacted by voters in November to stand, the group will gather to ensure, “our angry voices are heard around the nation.”

If the Supreme Court rules the ban is illegal, the group will gather to “celebrate a positive decision and attempt to spread its impact,” the Web site states.

“Your civil rights matter and the world needs to hear what you have to say,” the promo states.

See Same-sex marriage advocates brace for ‘Day of Decision’
Examiner.com – USA