Will Utah get rid of its gay marriage ban by 2013?

Utah might be ready to overturn its ban against gay marriage within the next 4 years.This is the conclusion of a recent study predicting the future of same sex unions in America.It has long been speculated Utah might be the last state to allow gay marriage, but this new study looked at the way ballots were cast in states voting on same sex marriage bans.And it concludes Utah won’t be last or, perhaps, even that much longer.The study was done by a well regarded website, FiveThirtyEight.com, the same website which accurately predicted many Obama victories in 2008.In its gay marriage study, FiveThirtyEight.com crunched Utah’s population numbers – things like how many young people there are and how religious. See Will Utah get rid of its gay marriage ban by 2013?
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‘People’s veto’ looms despite passage of gay marriage in Maine

Mary Breen, of South Berwick, Maine, is counting down the days until she and her partner can be married, now that Gov. John Baldacci has signed into law the state’s gay marriage bill.
“It’s a proud day to live in Maine,” she said after the signing. The moment the law goes into effect, she said, “We’ll be getting married.”
Exactly when that day will be depends on how quickly opponents can mount a petition campaign to force a citizen’s veto of the law, said Julie Flynn, deputy secretary of state for the Bureau of Corporation, Elections and Commissions.
Unlike New Hampshire, Maine has a mechanism to overturn a law called the “people’s veto.” Opponents must gather signatures of registered voters equal to 10 percent of those who voted in the last gubernatorial election. If verified, the veto measure is put on the next statewide ballot, with voters either upholding or repealing the law.
The secretary of state received an application for a people’s veto on Thursday, Flynn said. The office has 10 business days to write a legal ballot question and return it to the applicant.
The coalition of opponents, including the Catholic diocese of Portland and the Maine Jeremiah Project, must collect 55,087 valid signatures, but in practice need to get more than that in case signatures are disqualified.
For all practical purposes, said Flynn, opponents need to collect those signatures by mid-August to get on the November ballot, because they must be certified by town or city clerks first, then by the secretary of state — all by Sept. 4. That leaves 60 days before the Nov. 4 election, time enough for ballots to be printed and to allow for absentee voting.
Last year, opponents of a beverage tax were successful in garnering enough signatures for November and were ultimately successful in overturning the law. However, said Flynn, there was also a statewide election in June last year when organizers could gather signatures. There isn’t one in this off-election year.
“There’s always the county fairs and that sort of thing, but for this to be done, there’s going to have to be an organized effort,” she said.
Meanwhile, the bill itself is going on its own legal track. It will become law 91 days after the Legislature recesses, which is set for June 17 but could be earlier or later. That means the law would likely take effect Sept. 16. However, if the petitions are submitted to the secretary of state any time before Sept. 16, the law would be stayed from going into effect, Flynn said.See ‘People’s veto’ looms despite passage of gay marriage in Maine York Weekly * Tags = gay men gay news lesbian news transgender bisexual

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Gay Marriage Opponents File For People’s Veto in Maine

Just one day after Governor John Baldacci signed a bill to legalize same-sex marriages in Maine, opponents are gearing up for a possible repeal. They’ve filed an application with the Secretary of State’s Office to attempt a people’s veto.

A people’s veto would give Maine voters statewide the chance to decide for themselves whether or not they want to legalize gay marriage. Now that opponents have filed an application for a people’s veto, the Secretary of State has to come up with the wording for the question. And then opponents have to gather enough valid signatures, at least 55,087 of them, to qualify the measure for the ballot.

The Jeremiah Project and the Catholic Diocese of Portland are jointly running the campaign. “I think that the vast majority of people are not supportive of what has happened here,” says Marc Mutty, Director of Public Affairs for Maine’s Catholic Diocese. “We certainly see the churches as being our base and our largest base for gathering signatures. But we see us extending our effort beyond that. And it may be door-to-door, fairs, church fairs, county fairs, whatever it may be, whatever is available.”Organizers of the people’s veto have a deadline of 90 days after the Legislature adjourns to turn in the required signatures. Right now the Legislature’s statutory adjournment is June 17th.

In order to make the required deadline for this November’s ballot, which is the goal, the campaign will have to work more quickly, and turn in their signatures by the first week of August. That would allow time for Maine Secretary of State Matt Dunlap to certify them. “And then the governor would have to do a proclamation, which he cannot do less than 60 days before the election; and then from there we would have to produce ballots and get them out at least 45 days before the election so people can vote absentee,” Dunlap says.Dunlap says opponents can start circulating their petitions as soon as he determines the proper wording of the question. “Ultimately, it is my discretion to write the question. We do solicit suggestions from the proponents. We have access to a volunteer group called the “Ballot Clarity Group” that can

See Gay Marriage Opponents File For People’s Veto
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Franken rival heads to court

(Minneapolis, Minnesota) No longer a U.S. senator, Republican Norm Coleman was headed to court Tuesday, seeking to overturn a state board’s certification that Democrat Al Franken won the U.S. Senate recount.

Coleman’s lawyers had promised a legal challenge a day earlier, arguing that some ballots were mishandled and others were wrongly …

Demographics suggest Prop. 8 may have a short life

If the Proposition 8 battle is replayed in 2010, demographic trends alone could eliminate the initiative’s winning margin, according to an analysis of polling and census data.

Gay rights groups have already vowed a 2010 repeal fight against the initiative, which took away a right for same-sex couples to marry that had been granted in a California Supreme in May. Given that conventional wisdom holds that it is easier to get a no vote than a yes vote, a repeal campaign could have a harder mission than the unsuccessful No on 8 campaign did this year.

“We have not determined, with our allies, exactly when that will be,” said Rick Jacobs, founder and director of the Courage Campaign, which has gathered over 300,000 names on an online petition calling for a repeal. “But we will be absolutely ready to put it on the ballot in 2010.”

If the repeal side does get on the ballot, they’ll be facing a very different electorate. According to the Field Poll, voters 65 and older made up 19 percent of the 13 million people who cast ballots in this election — about 2.5 million voters. According to polling by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), six in 10 voted for Prop. 8. The measure won by 4.6 percentage points, or 591,644 total votes.

According to death rate data provided by the California Department of Public Health, over a third of those over 65 die each year. If you applied these deaths rates to voters in this age group, over two years, deaths could eliminate 1.5 million voters over 65 — which would suggest 900,000 yes on Prop. 8 voters and only 600,000 no voters, for a net loss of 300,000 votes for the yes side.

However, it’s probably not quite this simple, according to PPIC demographer Hans Johnson, who noted that it was probably healthier older people with lots of years ahead of them who cast more of the ballots.

“If you’re really sick, you probably didn’t vote,” Johnson said. “If you‘re in a nursing home or suffer from dementia, you probably didn’t vote.” See Demographics suggest Prop. 8 may have a short life
Capitol Weekly, CA