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Scotland YouGov poll reports 56% support equal marriage

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  1. While any evidence showing majority support for same sex marriage in Scotland is to be welcomed, I worry slighty about the drop of 9% from the previous poll 18 months ago.
    I know a massive majority of MSPs voted for the bill in principle and for it to proceed to the amendment stage, and it’s likely to be passed in the end, but I wonder if the majority will be quite as big and also what amendments might be added to the bill.
    No doubt this will be used by MSPs like Elaine Smith & John Mason to show a drop in public support.

    1. Sorry, it’s a drop of 8%. When I was writing my first comment, I thought the 2012 poll was 65% – even though I’d just read the article a minute beforehand!

    2. Robert in S. Kensington 5 Dec 2013, 12:53pm

      I wouldn’t worry about the slight drop. Our bill’s support dropped a bit in third reading but still passed with a very large majority and a higher one in the Lords. It isn’t uncommon in third readings for any legislation and isn’t peculiar to the marriage bill. The amendment stage is always the tricky part with some trying to throw a spanner in the works but during our debate south of the border, every wrecking amendment in both Houses was defeated resoundingly and so too will Scotland’s. It’s going to pass regardless.

      1. Yes, you’re probably right. I always think of the worst case scenario possible, especially while there’s still a chance it may not become law! I really should try to be more optimistic in future! But until the final vote takes place next year, I won’t be able to rest easy!

        1. Robert in S. Kensington 5 Dec 2013, 1:09pm

          I know exactly how you feel Bennie. I watched every committee meeting here in London and at times, I was very despondent hearing some of the most vile comments from the opposition and actually thought the bill would die because of the preposterous wrecking amendments in both Houses. Even the rabidly negative tabloids such as the Mail and Telegraph predicted it would be massacred in the Lords and look what happened. They want us to be pessimistic but don’t fall for it. It’s going to pass, believe me, and they know it. Don’t be surprised when they try to up the ante as the bill progresses, all acts of desperation.

  2. Yes- why is support FALLING? If it is a continuing trend it could lead to no margin of support.

    1. That’s my worry. If enough MSPs can be persuaded to change their minds, the majority may not be as big and it’s possible that it might not be passed – very unlikely at this stage, but still possible. At least one MSP pledged to support it months ago but actually abstained during the first vote. If one can do that, how many more?

    2. Robert in S. Kensington 5 Dec 2013, 12:57pm

      As I said in my comment to Bennie, it isn’t uncommon for support in any legislation to drop slightly in second and third reading subject to amendments in committee, some of them intentionally deliberate to kill a bill. I’ve watched many Westminster parliamentary legislative debates over the years and Scotland’s is no different. The second and third stages may well have fewer votes but there will be more than enough to pass it.

    3. I couldn’t be bothered looking up the two polls, but there is probably a difference in question wording, and poll results always bounce around by a few per cent anyway. There has been a steady upwards trend in support for the last few decades – it isn’t about to reverse now, and certainly not before the legislation is passed

  3. Should be much higher than the mid fifties.
    It is the 21st centuriy.

    1. Robert in S. Kensington 5 Dec 2013, 1:03pm

      It depends on how many people bothered to show support. A lot of people are indifferent, many don’t even bother to vote in elections. The fact remains that more support it than oppose no matter the percentage in support. Almost all polls aren’t reliably accurate or easy to gauge. Take our own government consultation for example, the longest in history which revealed 53% in support compared to the far higher percentage of support in both Houses of Parliament.

      1. I think you’ve hit the nail on the head, Robert. Most people probably are indifferent to equal marriage because it doesn’t pesonally affect them, or their family & friends. It’s well known that people become more interested in issued or causes that do personally effect them. For example, take organ donation, most people don’t sign up as donors until it affects a family member of friend, and therefore personally affects them.
        Although, I think that when pushed on equal marriage, most of these indifferent people will be in favour because they won’t see a reason not to support it. If someone is a homophobic bigot, then they wouldn’t be indifferent in the first place, they’d be against it. Most people are fairly decent wen it comes down to it.

        1. Robert in S. Kensington 5 Dec 2013, 6:14pm

          Of course, Bennie! I promise you, Scotland will pass this bill!

  4. Charliej95 7 Dec 2013, 1:52pm

    You gov tends to be rather pessimistic in its results it finds, there polls tend to show support for status quo’s compared to the other pollsters. The same was found in independence polls.

    Where are the detailed results for the poll anyway?

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