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US Supreme Court could make ruling on key equal marriage cases today

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  1. The Court is not ready to act. I expect Prop 8 will be overturned either as “improvidently granted” – meaning we should not have taken this case; or by finding the appellants have no standing, meaning the original District Court decision can not be appealed by them and stands. But no wide ruling for gay people there.

    DOMA will go because the federal government does not get to decide who is married. This will be the final finding of as many as 7 justices. But the Court will dodge the question of marriage per se.

    1. The effect will be to give marriage back to California and to force the Federal government to recognize gay marriages, but to do little or nothing to advance gay legal status. There will be no finding that anti-gay laws require a higher level of scrutiny; no validation of Equal Protection claims; no findings FOR gay marriage or gay people because we are one vote shy of that, and yet the anti-gay crowd is one vote shy as well. The next appointment will have to do it, unless Roberts has to decide whether to advance or regress and I think ultimately he is an advancer.

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