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US: Studies show majority of voters support equal marriage in Michigan and Virginia

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  1. A multi-stat analysis done in 2011 tried to project how voters would *actually* vote if ballot measures were introduced in 2012 and the ensuing major election years (2016 and 2020). It predicted ballot measures could have passed in 2012 in these states (ignoring those where it has already passed): HI, NJ, CA, OR, NV, IL, PA, CO and WI. It also predicted pluralities soon after in NM, MI and AZ, as well as nationwide, and recent polls support these projections. By 2016, it predicted ballot pluralities in these other states: MT, AK, VA, FL, OH, IA (already won judicially), ND and NE, with SC. I’d be interested in seeing more poll figures for these states, particularly the first group, since it seems ballot measures there, though potentially more expensive than legislative bills, would be surer of success and quicker to enact.

    45% of the country will soon enjoy substantial state-level same-sex union rights (via marriages, CUs or DPs). That’s a mighty big “experiment”, SCOTUS.

    1. That’s incredibly interesting, do you have a link to the analysis, I’d love to check it out.

  2. Oops, editing error: SC wasn’t predicted to have a plurality until after 2020. I initially skipped a line in my personal notes, and incompletely backed out the gaffe.

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