More bad than good news, I think. It means, that in the Supreme Court at the moment conservative camp has majority – liberal judges was in favor of not hearing of Prop. 8, leading to restoration of same-sex marriage in California immediately. But now we have another situation. And what it means for the ‘Doma’? Well, if conservative judges will have majority in this case too, the answer is more or less clear…
It’s more complicated than that, Pavlos! Because SCOTUS will also review the issue of standing of the proponents arguing for Prop 8, and also what degree or kind of scrutiny should apply. Justice Kennedy is widely seen as the “swing” vote, and crafted the favorable decision in the Lawrence case striking down laws criminalizing homosexuality. He has had openly gay staff, and is from California. For a complete discussion of all relevant issues, I recommend Ari Waldman’s analysis for Towleroad:
Not from what I have heard !! The judges are evenly divided with only one swing vote that could swing this time in favor of equality this time and that is why most people are optimistic
From what I’ve heard, only four judges need to agree to hear a case. Probably neither the liberals or the far-right ones know which way Kennedy and perhaps even a couple of others will go. Apparently the court has written into the orders some doubts about whether it has jurisdiction over these cases: if it ultimately decides it doesn’t have jurisdiction, the lower court rulings would apparently stand but not set any wider precedents. (the doubts are based on uncertainty over whether the participants of the cases have legal standing to be involved in them)
Wow – this is the really big one for the Americans.
What ever the US Supreme Court decided will act to define who the American people are as a culture and how the rest of the world regards them.
OMG! Didn’t expect that. Ramifications could be massive. My gut feeling is positive as momentum is on our side
I’m optimistic. The four liberals will support equality, and only one other vote is needed. Kennedy, the moderate, has supported GLBT issues in the past, and I even think Roberts, a conservative, may side with equality here.
Land of the free my arse!
It seems to me the US Supreme Court can not get it’s act together!
31 states in the US still ban same sex marriage by a Constitutional Amendment.
This is my guess but the year 2037 same sex marriage will be legal in all the 50 states when the US Supreme Court strikes down the Texas, Utah, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Kansas and Alabama hateful Constitutional Amendments!
Now these are my predictions to allowing equal Marriage in the state Constitutions.
California, Hawaii, Oregon and Ohio will have same sex marriage at the ballot box in 2014. Nevada and Colorado in 2016 and 2018 (remember in Nevada Constitutional Amendments must be approved twice).
Missouri, North Dakota, South Dekoda, Wisconsin in 2020. Michigan and Virginia in 2022. Idaho, Tennessee and Kentucky in 2023.
Indiana in 2014 will have a Constitutional Amendment banning same sex marriage and in 2024 this will be repealed!
Both Pennsylvania and West Virginia…
Those constitutional bans will be taken down quite quickly over the next five years, until only the hardcore Red States have them left. The era of the Religious Right scaring people into seeing us a some demonic “other” is passing. The referendum results last month prove that. NOM is now toothless, and even the Mormon Church is coming round to the idea that they’ve lost the public mindset.
What is more important as far as I’m concerned is the DOMA case. Whilst DOMA is there married same-sex couples are not equal under US law with their opposite-sex counterparts, regardless of which state they live in. This is a direct violation of federal power over the states and equal-protection clauses in the US Constitution. The SCOTUS has no option but to strike it down.
The tide has definitely turned over the Pond. LGBT equality is finally looking to be within reach.
I hope DOMA gets stricken down and declared unconstitutional!
DOMA was a law hastily and rushed passed the Republican controlled both houses of Congress way back in 1996 under Bill Clinton signature into law who is a Democrat mind you! Because of DOMA 1,157 federal obligations, rights, privileges, benefits or entitlements that heterosexual couples take for granted every day are being DENIED to all or any same sex couples regardless of what state you are in or how long you have been together – including a state that currently has full marriage equality (e.g. New York State). A heterosexual couple who has been together for just 1 DAY has more rights federally, than a gay couple who have been together for over 60 YEARS!
Is this what the “land of the free” and the “pursuit of happiness” country does to its own people? – i am afraid so, FOR SHAME! It is high-time the old, outdated, unconstitutional, hateful and bigots law was declared unconstitutional by the SCOTUS and then repealed!
Will never have a Constitutional Amendment banning SSM just like Minnesota.
Wyoming will have a CA in 2013 and get repealed in 2025!
Both North Carolina and South Carolina in 2026.
Any states I have left out please let me know!
Oh Florida will repeal it’s constitutional amendment banning same sex marriage in 2030!
I predict this because of the amount of elderly voters in the state!
Arkansas in 2033!
Alaska in 2035!
Most likely outcome: SCOTUS eliminates DOMA, rules no standing on Prop 8. 10 states, including California, have SSM with full federal rights.
10 states and the District of Columbia. The US capital territory also has marriage equality.
Mind you, as the SCOTUS probably won’t rule until June I wouldn’t be surprised if a couple of other states have already passed their own laws by then. There’s a lot of momentum in the newly Democrat-controlled state legislatures.
Marriage is a STATE issue anyway in the United States – so the federal DOMA law is unconstitutional anyway!
Unlike my country here in Australia where marriage legal issues are a federal law!
I feel very ashamed and embarrassed when I say “I am from Australia” – only because of our own lack of equality on civil marriage. Because of our own bigoted and stupid PM called JuLIAR Gillard!
I wish someday I had a husband who is a hot US Marine, Aussie, UK or US soldier, fireman or policeman (I love men in uniform) – most of the men in my country are stupid, drunk and ugly!
For the past 9 months, I have been very keen and paying close attention to what is happening on the progress of gay eights and same sex marriage in the United States and Europe!
And even next door in New Zealand, I am crying right now because my country Australia has turned into a place were gay men like me have been discriminated against OUR WHOLE LIVES and our PM is a bitch!
Beware of what the homophobic Catholic Bishops try to do to influence SCOTUS. Scalia is mates to Opus Dei. And Cordileone will be up to his most sinister I bet.