I don’t think it’s a case of underestimating the opposition, it’s a case of the pro-gay people, while being sympathetic, finding it unnecessary to vote. LGBT issues just aren’t something that they consider an issue, whereas the religious will turn up in droves to ensure that their oppression succeeds.
The referendum is at least occurring when people will be going to the polling booths anyway. I have good vibes about three of these states. I’m a lot more nervous about the Presidential side of things though. Although Obama seems to be slightly ahead in key states I worry Romney supporters in those states are more likely to get out and vote. A Romney/Ryan win would make any Maryland equality victory moot every quickly.
Obama’s ground game and ‘get out the vote’ operations are legendary. He’s already way ahead on unnofficial exit polling in terms of early voting in states like Ohio and Iowa and those are gaps that Romney is going to have trouble closing. It’s still all to play for but OBama’s not out of the game yet.
I hope at least one state votes in favour of same sex marriage, I suspect Maine is most likely with Washington next and then Maryland. Sadly I think Minnesota will vote for the constitutional change banning same sex marriage. You’re right though, turnout should help although it did for California in 2008.
Romney and Ryan won’t be able to do anything to overturn what happens in Maryland though. They talk the good talk about a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage but it won’t happen because the process of changing the US constitution is incredibly convaluted and difficult.
… didn’t for California….. oops!
That was then. Polls show if the same vote were held today it would go the other way. No matter, the California Supreme court has struck it down.
If turnout is heavy in Minnesota they will defeat both amendments (Voter photo ID law and constitutional amendment to prohibit gay marriage). Its neck and neck right now on the anti-gay marriage amendment.
The article said: “This does not represent guaranteed success for equal marriage in Maryland, however, as historically polls such as this one have underestimated opposition to equal marriage.”
Not true. The problem is supportive people are less likely to actually vote than the haters. Voter turnout is the key.
Because of that, and the fact that Maryland is a border state, it’s going to be very close. I think the referendums in Washington state and Maine have a much better chance of passing.
There is a fear of a kind of Bradley effect however. In other words, just as voters say they’ll vote for a black candidate to appear tolerant when they have no intention of doing so they may also say they’ll vote for gay marriage because they don’t want to appear intolerant but have no intention of approving it when they stand in the voting booth.
But there is also the pride vote. People who support human rights want to be the first state to vote for them for GLBTQ persons – history is a strong motivator sometimes (such as in the last presidential election).
Good for them let us see it in action.
I hope that this is a successful vote. Good luck to all in Maryland.
Since when did we have to vote on non-gay marriage? . . .