When Scotland make same-sex marriage legal one day earlier than England, it will be very shameful for Westminster. But when both parts of island of Ireland – this will be most incredible story in the history of the British gay rights movement since marriage of Princess Margret with guy with bisexual ‘reputation’.
I sincerely hope that both North and South get there soon, but the chances of either jurisdiction beating Westminster to the punch are slim.
Marriage equality is popular in the South with politicians and voters. Unfortunately it is widely believed that a constitutional amendment is required, and the current government wants a convention before the referendum. This will take years – the convention has as yet not even assembled. On the plus side, when the referendum is finally held, it is likely to succeed. Marriages in 2019?
As for the North, marriage equality is unpopular. Even without the cross-community procedure, 54 votes are needed in Stormont, and I doubt equality would get 50 today. SF, Alliance and Green are all pro (38), and SDLP is semi-officially pro (14) – but many will vote anti. Expect all DUP members to vote against, with bonus vile verbiage. UUP support will be needed even for a simple majority and IMHO that’s 5 years away. Marriages: 2020?
Well, it also means, that the Pride of liberal and gay friendly England can be saved…