Couple of points:-
1. On this sample size the two main figures are going to be plus or minus 3 or 4 percentage points.
2. The number of “don’t knows” is minute to the point incredibility.
Quite. It is much too close to call. And I think percentages in individual states will remain the crucial thing.
Actually, I remember reading a study that suggests just 40 random people was a large enough study to get a reasonably reliable result. Every study needs multiple samples.
polls are just polls in the end, they mean nothing!!!!!!
“Among those over 55 per cent, support dropped to 39 per cent.”
I think you mean “those over 55″, unless you’re referring to people with a very high alcohol content !
I hate all these polls, they indicate absolutely nothing. In a country of over 300 million people, a poll of 1000 is hardly representative.
Well actually, this means nothing. New York State apparently has until June 20 to vote for the second time on marriage equality. Right now, out of the 32 votes needed to pass it, 28 democrats will vote yes, 4 will vote no and NO republicans (conservatives) will vote for it, so the bill will be defeated yet again. A loss for us but a second win for the hate group National Organisation for Marriage et al, religion based bigotry rearing its ugly head in what is purely a civil matter.
It isn’t true the poll means nothing, it means you have to understand statistics to know what weight to give the findings. On a sample of this size you can say that the % favouring gay marriage is x% plus or minus y% to a 95% degree of confidence. That means there is a 19 in 20 chance that the % favouring gay marriage is x% or up to y% either way of that. Whether the variation is 3% at a 95% degree of confidence I cannot say, as I haven’t done statistics for 45 years. But if it is that’s a bare majority or better. Of course this is what people say in a poll. Throw a $1billion advertising campaign at the issue from the religious right and opinions might change. But even if the figures are slightly wrong, there does seem to be an opinion shift towards being in favour
“Throw a $1billion advertising campaign at the issue from the religious right and opinions might change.”
It’s not like they haven’t already been doing that, though. If twenty years of relentless demagoguery haven’t stopped the movement in our direction, nothing will.
This is the fourth or fifth credible national poll over the last six months to show majority support for marriage equality, so it’s probably safe to say it isn’t an outlier. I don’t know why it would come as a surprise to anyone, since the clear trend line over decades of polling on this question has shown it going our way, slowly but surely. Of course it doesn’t mean that marriage equality is going to happen here overnight. Changes happening on the ground are always slow to percolate up through our political system. We had years of national polling showing majority support for open service in the military before we were finally able to get rid of DADT, for example. But it certainly means something that we’ve cracked the 50 percent threshold nationwide. It really is just a matter of time now.
Again, good news but it’s just a shame that as usual those elected don’t seem to what to listen.
What is it going to take?
Jock, lets hope Cameron listens when the consultation begins and not get bullied by the C of E cult clerics, among others. This is a purely civil matter and religious cults should keep their noses out of secular issues. No law will compel them to recognise or officiate at same-sex marriages and quite frankly, who really cares what they think? They’ll use it as a red herring but I think the British public is a lot smarter than that and hopefully so is Cameron et al. The problem with our religious foes is that they can’t distinguish between religious from secular as if they owned civil marriage which of course they don’t. The majority of the populace isn’t that religious so their counter argument is lame at best and very transparent.
While I do very much empathize with my LGBT tribe south of the border, I can only shake my head when I read reports such as this one. Prior to the vote for marriage equality six years ago here in Canada there was something on the order of 65% approval among the general public. Of course, the vote was passed with slimmer margins since legislators rarely represent actual public opinion. They are just a bunch of individuals with their own opinions after all. As such, I worry whether the USA will ever manage to gain this most basic (in my humble opinion) human right for all it’s citizens.
Finally, marriage and civil unions are not equal … if they were, why have two names for the same thing?
I agree, Robert.
Although Cameron, like Clegg does support Equal Marriage and Civil Partnership so we have that on our side.
Here’s hoping though.
Canuck-I-Stain….you’re exactly right, the two aren’t equal and those who think they are, are in denial. There’s no such thing as divorce in a civil partnership or other non-married union, instead, the “dissolution” is substituted to distance these unions from marriage. Rings aren’t mandatory for at least one of the partners as they are in marriage, there are no official vows exchanged and pension distributions are not identical to those of straight married couples in terms of their retroactivity.
As for America, I’m not hopeful that same-sex marriage will ever be legalised in all states. Further, I just don’t see the Supreme Court of the U.S. stacked with 5 or 6 out of 9 very staunch catholic judges who are opposed to it, ever legalising it unless of course by some miracle, more than half of the 50 states permitted it which would put it in a very difficult situation to ignore.
Jock, if Ed Miliband declares it official Labour Party policy and he must if his party is to gain any gay votes, Cameron would be foolish to ignore the political implications of two parties against one by not supporting it. After all, he didn’t win a landslide in the last election or even a mandate. So he’s walking a very thin line if he refuses to endorse and support it. Its political suicide not to.
I agree Robert.
But lets not forget that we are now entering into a ‘consultation’ on Equal Marriage under this government so here’s hoping.
I get the feeling Ed Milibore just says things he thinks may make him popular, which so far hasn’t been an awful lot about Equal Marriage.
But either way yes, I agree, you are assuming though that Labour will make Marriage Equality party policy.
They don’t seem to be in a rush to make it so.
Jock, once the consultation is underway, you’ll see how fast Miliband scurries to include it as official party policy. He’d be a fool if he didn’t. There’s no way he can get back gay votes if he doesn’t, not that I’m a Tory or a Labour supporter.
Nor am I.
I am a here and now and better for the future supporter.
I must admit I reckon Labour will just leave it and hope no-one notices that they have choosen to ignore it.
The poll shows support. Isn’t that enough to convince the nay-sayers to STFU and accept it? Times have changed, and its time to move with the times.
Jock, if the Tories do officially endorse it as party policy once the consultation begins, I don’t see how Miliband could choose to ignore it and pretend anybody else hasn’t. He’s playing with fire if he takes that approach, foget about a win in 2015, even if the economy doesn’t recover. With the Tories and Liberal Democrats against them on this issue, Labour will be doomed in winning a return to power, deservedly so.
44 per cent are against gay marriage, which is still a very high and depressing percentage. :o(